Bitcoin's price direction continues to be heavily debated. | Source: CCN
Share
Key Takeaways
Crypto analyst Jesse Olson warned Bitcoin could fall to around $24,000 by 2026.
Some analysts argued that SpaceX’s soaring valuation could trigger a broader market correction.
Despite growing crash warnings, market commentator Marcus Today said investors should focus on probabilities rather than worst-case forecasts.
Bitcoin could plunge to around $24,000 by 2026 if a severe US stock market crash unfolds, according to crypto analyst Jesse Olson, as a growing number of market commentators warn that a major US market crash could be looming.
The comments also follow concerns from some analysts that the potential fallout from Elon Musk’s highly valued SpaceX IPO could trigger a broader market downturn.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
On Sunday, popular crypto analyst Olson presented a thesis on X that Bitcoin’s price could fall dramatically “if the overall stock market crashes 50%+”
“Bitcoin reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card,” Olson wrote.
The fall, if it occurred, would see a drop of roughly 60% below current levels near $63,000-$64,000.
$BTC reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card.
In my opinion, this only happens if the overall stock market crashes 50%+. (still at all-time highs)
I don't believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens. pic.twitter.com/tFyZzmasMe
The forecast reflects what traders often call a “black swan” scenario, a low-probability event with significant market consequences.
“I don’t believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens,” Olson said.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong correlation with technology stocks and other risk assets during periods of market stress.
SpaceX Could Trigger a Broader Selloff
Among the crash warnings is a recent argument from Alan Oscroft, a contributor to The Motley Fool, who suggested that SpaceX’s soaring valuation could eventually destabilize markets.
“The only thing I’m 100% convinced of concerning a stock market crash is that we’ll have one in the future,” Oscroft wrote.
He argued that a significant US market correction remains one of the biggest risks facing investors and suggested SpaceX’s valuation deserves close attention.
“I reckon a big US stock market sell-off is the biggest danger… and SpaceX might just be the trigger,” he wrote.
Oscroft highlighted comments from investor Michael Burry, who recently questioned the company’s valuation.
“[SpaceX is] fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light,” Burry said on June 16.
According to Oscroft, SpaceX’s rapid rise has been fueled partly by a limited supply of publicly tradable shares.
“The SpaceX price surge has mostly been driven by retail investors competing for the relatively small number of shares currently available. Only about 4.25% of the company is currently tradable on the open market,” he wrote.
With roughly 95.75% of shares still held by Elon Musk, employees, and early investors, Oscroft warned that future selling pressure could emerge once lock-up restrictions expire.
“What might happen when they’re free to sell and try to pocket their winnings? The thought of it makes me shudder a bit,” he said.
Although he acknowledged that SpaceX could become a long-term success story, Oscroft said its current valuation remains difficult to justify.
“The current lack of profit, plus a price-to-sales ratio over 100, means the price isn’t right for me,” he wrote.
The broader concern is that a sharp decline in highly valued AI-related or technology assets could spread throughout global markets.
As Oscroft said: ” When Wall Street sneezes, the world catches a cold.”
Investors Not to Fear Crash Predictions
While stock market and Bitcoin crash forecasts continue to circulate, Australian market commentator Marcus Today argued that investors often overestimate the likelihood of catastrophic events.
“Negative headlines appear 17 times more often than optimistic headlines,” he said in a recent YouTube video.
Addressing fears ranging from an AI bubble to geopolitical conflicts, Marcus Today said investors should focus on probabilities rather than worst-case forecasts.
“The likelihood is you think there’s this Machiavellian plot against you that’s going to cause disaster, and you worry about it constantly,” he said.
The commentator estimated that many commonly discussed market risks remain unlikely in the near term.
“What are the odds of the AI share price rise suddenly catastrophically blowing up on you? … In all cases it’s less than 10%. In other words, it’s nine times more likely that it doesn’t happen,” he said.
Rather than attempting to predict crashes, he advocated responding to emerging market conditions.
Despite concerns surrounding AI-related valuations, he said his team remains constructive on sectors tied to artificial intelligence until evidence suggests the trend is ending.
Markets Hold Steady Despite Warnings
Despite the persistent “black swan” warnings of its impact on Bitcoin, a vast majority of Wall Street institutions argue that the threat of a looming market collapse is unlikely.
US stock futures were little changed on Monday as investors weighed signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and looked ahead to a closely watched inflation report later in the week.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely flat, signaling a cautious start to trading.
Investor sentiment was supported by comments from Iranian officials, who said there had been “encouraging progress” in talks with the US in Switzerland.
Oil prices also moved lower as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough offset geopolitical concerns.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
