Bitcoin and XRP has been left off S&P Dow Jones & Pantera Crypto Index. | Source: CCN.
Share
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s drop below $64,000 and the key $63,700 support level have weakened its short-term recovery structure.
Failure to reclaim $63,700 could send BTC toward $56,500, where liquidity below previous lows may trigger a temporary rebound.
Reclaiming $63,700 and breaking above $66,100 would undermine the bearish outlook and restore bullish momentum.
Bitcoin’s price outlook has come under renewed scrutiny after S&P Dow Jones Indices excluded it from a new revenue-focused crypto benchmark.
The newly announced S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index contains 18 cryptocurrencies, led by Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Tron, and Hyperliquid.
However, Bitcoin was omitted because its protocol does not generate the type of revenue required, according to CEO Cathy Clay.
The decision has provoked an angry response from parts of the crypto community as critics question whether equity-style measurements can be applied to digital assets.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
Bitcoin Left Out of S&P’s Revenue-Focused Crypto Index
S&P Dow Jones Indices launched the S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index in collaboration with crypto investment firm Pantera Capital.
The benchmark is designed to track cryptocurrencies that demonstrate recurring economic activity through protocol-level revenue.
Appearing on CNBC, Clay said the company wanted to apply principles commonly used in its equity indices to digital assets.
However, the revenue requirement prevented Bitcoin from securing a position.
“Bitcoin is not in there because it’s really not one of those revenue-generating protocols that we think belongs in this index,” Clay said.
XRP was also excluded, with S&P identifying it and Bitcoin as the two largest omissions from the new benchmark.
Under the official methodology, eligible crypto must have generated positive aggregate protocol revenue during the two most recently completed fiscal quarters.
New constituents must also have a market capitalization of at least $500 million.
Clay stressed that the revenue measured by the index comes from the use of the underlying protocols rather than yield-bearing investment products.
The index will rebalance quarterly, allowing cryptocurrencies to be added or removed as their revenue, market capitalization, and liquidity change.
S&P already operates several other cryptocurrency benchmarks, including dedicated Bitcoin and Ethereum indices.
Crypto Community Erupts Over Bitcoin Exclusion
The decision immediately divided the crypto community, with some users attacking both the revenue requirement and the index’s diversification.
One X user questioned whether grouping highly correlated cryptocurrencies into a single benchmark could provide the same benefits as an equity index.
“How utterly stupid! At least with a stocks index fund some stocks perform better on the day than others levelling out the price movement,” they wrote.
Although crypto frequently moves in the same direction during major market-wide rallies or sell-offs, its performance can still differ significantly.
Another user challenged the idea that charging users should automatically make a blockchain more financially attractive.
“These people still don’t get it. Revenue generating fees are bad,” they wrote.
A third user expressed surprise that Bitcoin and XRP were both excluded.
“Wow only Bitcoin and XRP are excluded!! First time I have seen Bitcoin being in the same category as XRP or vice versa🤔,” they wrote.
Could Bitcoin’s Price Crash to $20,000?
Bitcoin’s exclusion does not directly affect its price or prevent institutional investors from gaining exposure through other S&P benchmarks and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
However, the controversy has emerged as traders continue to assess whether Bitcoin’s decline from its 2025 record high.
In a June Motley Fool analysis, analyst Reuben Gregg Brewer highlighted Bitcoin’s history of severe drawdowns.
Bitcoin’s deepest previous decline reached approximately 83%, while it has fallen by more than 60% on three separate occasions, Brewer said.
A 60% decline from the $124,773 record high would take Bitcoin to approximately $49,900.
An 80% crash would push its price to around $24,950, while a fall to $20,000 would require a decline of almost 84%.
That would place a $20,000 target close to, but slightly beyond, Bitcoin’s worst historical percentage drawdown.
Brewer argued that “there could be more downside for Bitcoin in the near term” as traders move elsewhere.
As Brewer put it, there were “clouds in the sky, but the sky isn’t falling for Bitcoin.”
$42,000 Bitcoin Price?
Previous CCN technical analysis identified $42,000 as a credible bearish target if Bitcoin failed to hold several key support levels.
“A decline to $42,000 remains possible, but it would likely require Bitcoin to break $56,500 and then slice through the broader support zone around $50,000,” the analysis found.
Such a move would represent a decline of approximately 34% from the $64,000 level used in the analysis.
A crash toward $42,000 could coincide with a larger market shock. This could potentially involve miner capitulation or renewed financial stress at a major crypto company.
However, a bearish chart projection does not necessarily imply that any of those events will occur.
The analysis identified $63,700 and $66,100 as important recovery levels for buyers, while $56,500 remained the next major downside target if sellers regained control.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
