Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes says the AI boom is a debt-fueled real estate cycle that could end more like the 2008 credit crisis than the 2000 dot-com crash.
- He expects the eventual bailout and monetary response to lift Bitcoin to $1 million or more, although he gives no firm deadline and sees further downside first.
- From about $64,200, Bitcoin would need to rise roughly 15.6 times, or 1,458%, to reach $1 million.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million after the AI investment boom turns into a credit bust, forcing governments to print money faster than during a global financial crisis, according to Arthur Hayes.
In an essay titled “Situationship” published this week, the BitMEX co-founder argued that investors have mistaken debt-heavy spending on data centers, power, and chips for a conventional high-growth technology trade.
Bitcoin traded near $64,200 at the time of writing, close to the range Hayes identified as a possible bottoming zone.
Arthur Hayes Says an AI Bailout Will Drive Bitcoin to $1 Million
Hayes argued that the distinction between AI technology and the physical infrastructure that supports it will drive Bitcoin higher.
Data centers may contain advanced chips, but they are still buildings financed with debt, leases, and outside capital.
Hayes argues that the chips inside them can lose economic value quickly as newer hardware delivers more computing power for less electricity.
That creates a mismatch, possibly leading lenders to finance assets over several years even though the equipment becomes obsolete much faster.
If too much capacity is built and spending growth slows, weaker projects may struggle to generate enough cash.
Hayes therefore described the AI boom as “a credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.”
The Path To $1M Bitcoin Price
Hayes’s path to $1 million Bitcoin runs through four stages:
- AI infrastructure is overbuilt
- Debt losses spread to lenders and investors
- Governments intervene because AI is considered strategically vital
- Liquidity leaks into scarce financial assets.
“They will always print to save the system,” Hayes wrote.
He said the prospective rescue would be larger than the trillions created after 2008, adding:
“This time around, Bitcoin already exists and can now fulfill the dreams of many by hitting $1 million or higher.”
Why Hayes Thinks the AI Bubble Looks Like 2008
Hayes expects growth in announced AI capital expenditure to begin decelerating in mid-to-late 2027, with the slowdown becoming clear in 2028.
He thinks credit will continue to expand after the spending momentum fades, creating a period similar to the US housing market in 2006 and 2007.
“Society lends to build AI CAPEX assuming a constant acceleration of spend growth,” he wrote.
Once that acceleration weakens, more borrowing becomes dangerous even if headline spending is still increasing.
He also argues that governments will encourage banks to continue lending because leadership in AI has become a national security objective in the US and China.
If those loans sour, Hayes expects public support for both AI companies and their financiers.
AI Seems Fine For Now
The current evidence also does not show an industry-wide AI bust.
Alphabet said second-quarter Google Cloud revenue jumped 82%, while Microsoft reported 27% growth in Microsoft Cloud revenue.
The Fed has also not announced an AI rescue facility.
On July 29, it held its policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% and said it would continue to maintain ample reserves.
The central bank has purchased Treasury bills under its reserve-management program, but it describes those operations as a tool for controlling short-term rates.
Its July report said purchases since January totaled nearly $250 billion, including about $160 billion of reserve-management purchases.
Bitcoin Price Could Fall Before the ‘Crack-Up Boom’
Hayes was not able to call a clear bottom at the current price.
“I don’t know at what price Bitcoin will bottom; maybe it already did,” he wrote.
“Maybe Bitcoin chops between $60,000 to $70,000 for a while with a potential downside of $50,000.”
He said the market must also work through the concern that Strategy can no longer raise capital as easily to make accretive Bitcoin purchases.
Ethereum to $5,000 in 2026?
Hayes paired his Bitcoin forecast with a near-term bullish call on Ethereum.
“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000,” he wrote.
He argued that financial companies will increasingly launch tokenized-asset networks on Ethereum layer-2 systems such as Arbitrum, leaving Ethereum as the underlying settlement layer.
He cited Robinhood’s use of Arbitrum as institutional cover for other firms to follow.
At the time of reporting, Ethereum traded near $1,870, according to CoinGecko.
Reaching Hayes’s target would require a gain of about 168%, or roughly 2.7 times.
Who Else Has Predicted $1M?
The latest prediction from Hayes joins a group of investors who have attached a seven-figure value to Bitcoin.
In a 2024 Pirate Wires interview, Block co-founder Jack Dorsey said his 2030 target for Bitcoin was: “At least a million.”
“I do think it hits that number and goes beyond,” he added.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong offered the same date.
The rough idea I have in my head is we’ll see a million-dollar bitcoin by 2030,” he said on the Cheeky Pint podcast, while stressing that the estimate had “high error bars.”
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has also kept a seven-figure 2030 bull case.
ARK’s published 2025 model put Bitcoin at $1.5 million in its bull scenario.
Wood later said stronger-than-expected stablecoin adoption could subtract about $300,000, leaving a still-bullish $1.2 million target.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has gone much further.
His base case puts Bitcoin at $13 million by 2045, which he said would require a 29% annual return and produce a $280 trillion market value.
He has separately called for Bitcoin to reach $21 million under certain circumstances.
What Would Bitcoin Need to Reach a $1M Price?
At approximately $64,200 at the time of writing, reaching $1 million would require Bitcoin to increase nearly 1,458%.
In dollar terms, each Bitcoin would need to add approximately $935,800 to its current price.
With about 20.066 million BTC circulating, a $1 million price would give Bitcoin a market capitalization of approximately $20.1 trillion.
That represents an increase of about $18.8 trillion from its current valuation of $1.29 trillion. Based on Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins, its fully diluted value would reach $21 trillion.
For scale, a $20.1 trillion Bitcoin would equal about 70% of gold’s current estimated market value of $28.8 trillion.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
