Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $72K in September as Kalshi Traders Turn Bearish

Bitcoin’s strong August recovery is facing an early September test as prediction market traders increasingly bet that BTC will give back part of its recent gains.

Bitcoin traded around $77,700 on Sept. 2, remaining below the $80,000 level after gaining nearly 25% during August.

Kalshi’s September-low market has now turned notably defensive. Traders assign roughly an 80% probability that Bitcoin trades below $75,000 at some point this month, while a fall below $72,500 is priced around 53%. The probability drops to about 34% for $70,000 and 14% for $65,000.

Those contracts measure whether Bitcoin touches the specified levels before the end of September. They do not mean traders expect BTC to finish the month there.

Bitcoin’s $77K Support Puts $72K Back in Play

The $72,000 area is also appearing outside prediction markets.

Frank Hepworth, founder of New Market Trading, told Forbes that $77,000 is the immediate level to watch. If Bitcoin loses it, he identified $72,000 as the next target, followed by the 200-day moving average near $69,500.

That would put Bitcoin roughly 7% below its current price and erase a larger part of the rally that carried BTC from the low-$60,000 range to above $80,000 in August.

September has historically been difficult for Bitcoin. Dow Jones Market Data shows BTC has averaged a 2.2% September decline since 2014, making it the cryptocurrency’s weakest calendar month over that period.

Technical trader Doctor Profit expects volatility but is not positioning for a lasting breakdown. He sees Bitcoin moving within a $71,000–$82,000 range, calling $71,000 the floor while arguing that $82,000 must eventually break for the rally to continue.

“Bears will become very loud in the next days,” he wrote, while stressing that he remains in spot positions accumulated around $62,000 rather than shorting the market.

CryptoQuant Analyst Warns Bitcoin Demand Is Falling

Onchain demand may be the more immediate problem.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative again while short-term holders continue realizing profits.

“Without a recovery in demand in the very short term, BTC could begin another leg lower,” he warned, while noting that the outcome is not yet certain.

The warning comes as institutional flows also become less consistent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $236 million in net outflows on Sept. 1, including roughly $201 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, after receiving $216.7 million the previous session.

Fed Rate Hike Risk Adds Pressure

Bitcoin also enters September with a considerably tougher macro backdrop.

Markets now assign roughly a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 16, up from just 37% a week earlier. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns have pushed Treasury yields higher and strengthened the dollar, conditions that can pressure risk assets.

That leaves Bitcoin squeezed between two very different scenarios.

Holding $77,000 and reclaiming $80,000–$82,000 would weaken the bearish setup and support Doctor Profit’s breakout case.

But if demand continues deteriorating and $77,000 gives way, the $72,000–$72,500 zone that Kalshi traders are increasingly betting on could become Bitcoin’s next major test.