Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone wagers Bitcoin will be below $77,000 in one year as he doubles down on his long-running $10,000 BTC forecast.
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Mike McGlone and Joe Carlasare have agreed to judge their opposing Bitcoin outlooks against a $77,000 price in one year.
The wager carries only “bragging rights,” but follows McGlone’s repeated predictions that Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000.
McGlone remains bearish despite Bitcoin surging roughly 22% in one week, while Carlasare argues that nobody can reliably predict the asset’s next major move.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has entered a year-long Bitcoin wager after facing renewed criticism over his repeated prediction that BTC could fall to $10,000.
Bitcoin advocate Joe Carlasare challenged the analyst by compiling a list of bearish calls stretching back to 2022, prompting McGlone to agree to a one-year price contest.
The exchange comes after BTC rallied approximately 22% during the week ending Aug. 21, delivering one of its strongest weekly performances since US spot exchange-traded funds launched in early 2024.
Despite the rebound, McGlone has not abandoned his longer-term view that BTC could eventually return to $10,000.
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Mike McGlone and Joe Carlasare Set One-Year Bitcoin Bet
The wager began after Carlasare highlighted how frequently McGlone has forecast a Bitcoin decline toward $10,000.
Carlasare pointed to bearish comments dating back nearly four years, including McGlone’s November 2022 warning that Bitcoin risked “revisiting $10,000 support.”
The analyst issued similar warnings in 2023, 2025, and throughout 2026.
Responding to the compilation, McGlone invited Carlasare to take the opposite position to his.
“Joe is great! I suck, let’s prove it,” McGlone wrote.
Adding: “Do the opposite of my outlooks next year or so and check in.”
Done. Let’s see where bitcoin is at in one year. My bet is higher
McGlone then proposed the specific terms of the challenge.
“Happy to be short Bitcoin to Joe at $77,000. Check-in in a year. Winner/loser gets great/suck bragging rights.”
Carlasare accepted.
“Done. Let’s see where bitcoin is at in one year. My bet is higher,” he wrote.
Although McGlone used the phrase “short Bitcoin,” the public exchange only establishes a symbolic prediction contest. Neither participant disclosed a financial position or stake.
Carlasare Says Nobody Knows Where Bitcoin Is Going
While Carlasare’s bet is bullish, his broader argument is not that Bitcoin is guaranteed to rise.
Instead, he has warned against treating any price forecast, bullish or bearish, as certain.
“Here’s the truth: NOBODY knows where the price of bitcoin is about to go,” he previously wrote.
“Folks are guessing. And some might be better at guessing.”
Carlasare also pushed back against claims that Bitcoin can no longer produce the explosive gains seen during earlier cycles.
“When people tell you there’s no chance for Bitcoin to do a 3x or 5x in a relatively short period, just know that’s the voice of a person who has confused what they have seen with what is possible.”
This argument is central to his dispute with McGlone.
McGlone believes Bitcoin’s extreme upside catalysts have largely played out, leaving the asset vulnerable to a prolonged reversion.
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Carlasare argues that historical patterns cannot fully define the future price push.
The debate intensified after BTC’s latest rally caught bearish traders off guard.
One X user challenged McGlone to “put your money where your mouth is,” claiming that on-chain data had shown short positions becoming increasingly crowded before the rally.
According to the trader, positioning had created the conditions for a short squeeze several days before Bitcoin began climbing.
McGlone acknowledged the rebound on Monday, describing the 22% weekly gain as a possible signal that “volatility season” had begun.
Why McGlone Still Believes Bitcoin Could Fall to $10,000
McGlone’s latest $10,000 warning is part of a common bearish thesis he has repeated in several different market environments.
In November 2022, as the crypto market reeled from the collapse of FTX, he warned that Bitcoin was “breaching support” and risked returning to $10,000.
By October 2023, McGlone said the risks remained “tilted towards $10,000,” despite the market beginning to recover.
He revived the forecast several times in 2025.
“I think it loses a zero now. Go back to $10,000,” McGlone said during an September 2025 interview published the following month.
He reiterated the position in November.
“I’m saying the same thing now. I think it can go back to 10,000,” he said.
The warning continued into 2026.
In June, McGlone said he “fully” expected Bitcoin to finish the year closer to $10,000 than its price at the time.
His latest argument arrived on Aug. 16, when Bitcoin was struggling below $69,000 despite US stock indexes remaining comparatively resilient.
“Bitcoin showing comfort below $69,000 … may signal continued reversion toward $10,000,” McGlone wrote.
The analyst believes Bitcoin’s dramatic rise was partly created by extraordinary pandemic-era liquidity.
Massive monetary stimulus helped BTC reach roughly $69,000 in 2021.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs and Donald Trump’s pro-crypto political shift then supplied new catalysts, eventually helping the asset move above $100,000.
With spot ETFs already trading and favorable US crypto policies increasingly priced in, he believes Bitcoin needs a powerful new source of demand to sustain itself.
The repeated nature of the $10,000 call remains a major weakness in McGlone’s argument.
BTC has not traded at $10,000 since McGlone began issuing the warnings in 2022.
A fall from $77,000 to $10,000 would require a decline of approximately 87%.
McGlone Is Not The Only High-Profile Bear
McGlone is far from the only prominent market commentator predicting extreme downside for Bitcoin.
Gold advocate Peter Schiff has outlined a scenario in which BTC finishes 2026 at $10,000.
Schiff has consistently argued that Bitcoin lacks the physical utility and established monetary history of gold.
Economist Steve Keen has gone further, arguing that Bitcoin could eventually become worthless.
Keen’s thesis focuses on the energy required to secure Bitcoin through its proof-of-work mining system.
During an April appearance on The Diary of a CEO, he argued that governments facing greater pressure on energy supplies could prioritize essential industries over cryptocurrency mining.
“The two easiest things to cut out … are cryptocurrencies and international travel,” Keen said.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry has also compared the crypto with a speculative mania and questioned whether its rise toward $100,000 could be justified by fundamentals.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
