Tom Lee’s long-term Bitcoin bet delivered spectacularly — but his $6,000 Ethereum forecast still has a history of missed targets to overcome.
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Key Takeaways
Tom Lee says Fundstrat clients who allocated 2% to Bitcoin more than a decade ago saw the position grow to over 85% of their portfolios.
Ethereum ETFs attracted $216 million in one session, while Lee-led BitMine now owns approximately 4.9% of ETH’s supply.
Lee’s $6,000 Ethereum forecast would require a roughly 142% rally — and follows several bullish Bitcoin and ETH targets that missed their deadlines.
Tom Lee has forecast that Ethereum will reach $6,000 as institutional investors increase their exposure to the crypto.
The BitMine chairman’s prediction comes as US Ethereum ETFs attract fresh inflows and his company closes in on owning 5% of ETH’s circulating supply.
However, Lee has repeatedly missed crypto targets, including forecasts that Bitcoin would reach $25,000 in 2018 and $250,000 in 2025.
His latest call also follows a new claim that Fundstrat clients who originally allocated just 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin saw the position grow to more than 85% without buying additional BTC.
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Fundstrat began recommending that willing clients allocate 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin more than a decade ago, when the crypto traded below $1,000.
In a recent Wealthion interview, Lee said the average account that followed the recommendation subsequently saw Bitcoin grow to represent more than 85% of its portfolio.
“Our original recommendation for a 2% position, for the average account for Fundstrat that actually took our advice, is now over 85% of their portfolio,” Lee said.
“They bought 2% and Bitcoin’s gone up a lot in price.”
The statistic puts into perspective the enormous returns from holding Bitcoin through multiple crashes and recoveries.
However, it also assumes investors left the position untouched.
Regularly rebalancing a diversified portfolio would have prevented Bitcoin from growing to an 85% weighting.
Tom Lee Says Ethereum Can Reach $6,000
Despite bullish Bitcoin predictions, Lee’s attention remains heavily on Ethereum, which he believes could become a central settlement layer for tokenized Wall Street assets and AI-driven financial activity.
That calculation produces an Ethereum price of exactly $6,000.
With ETH currently trading near $2,482, the target would require a rise of approximately 142%.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, would need to climb roughly 95% from around $77,000 to fulfill the other half of Lee’s scenario.
Lee believes the next 12 months could be “really bullish” for crypto as leverage returns to the market and the four-year cycle approaches what he considers a bottom.
Recent fund flows provide some support for the institutional side of that argument.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $13.29 million net outflow during the same session, marking their fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.
BitMine Approaches 5% of Ethereum Supply
The most aggressive institutional buyer is currently BitMine, where Lee serves as chairman.
According to a Sept. 8 company announcement, BitMine owns 5.93 million ETH, equivalent to approximately 4.9% of the crypto’s 122 million circulating supply.
The company purchased another 28,086 ETH during the preceding week and said it had acquired Ethereum every week since launching its treasury strategy in June 2025.
Of its total holdings, 5.07 million ETH has been staked.
BitMine estimates the position is generating approximately $330 million in annualized staking revenue.
Holding almost 5% of Ethereum gives BitMine enormous exposure to any price increase — but also creates a potential concentration risk if the market moves against it.
Tom Lee’s Crypto Predictions Have Frequently Missed
Lee’s long-term conviction in Bitcoin proved highly profitable for investors who bought early and continued holding.
His predictions involving specific prices and deadlines have produced a much less consistent record.
In 2018, Lee repeatedly forecast that Bitcoin would reach $25,000 before reducing his year-end target to $15,000 as the market deteriorated.
Bitcoin finished the year near $3,700.
Lee later acknowledged that the outcome was a “huge disappointment,” saying the prediction had failed both on price and timing.
In May 2021, he maintained that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of that year. However, it finished December at approximately $46,000.
Lee went on to project that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 during 2025.
Instead, Bitcoin ended Dec. 31 at approximately $87,509, according to CoinMarketCap.
His Ethereum forecast missed by an even wider margin.
Lee predicted Ethereum could reach between $10,000 and $12,000 before the end of 2025.
Later, Ethereum finished the year at approximately $2,967, marking more than 70% below the bottom of its projected range.
Can Ethereum Reach $6,000 This Time?
Ethereum’s setup has strengthened in several measurable ways.
BitMine is approaching its 5% supply objective, and staking has locked a substantial quantity of ETH into network validation.
But reaching $6,000 before the end of 2026 would still require Ethereum to more than double from current levels.
Lee’s target also depends in part on Bitcoin climbing to $150,000 and Ethereum improving substantially against Bitcoin. I
f either of these assumptions fails, the calculation no longer produces $6,000.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
