Bitcoin retirement might be closer than you think | Source: AP Image / Mark Lennihan
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Key Takeaways
The amount of Bitcoin needed to retire varies widely by location.
The independent researcher provided a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Market outlook remains divided.
The amount of Bitcoin required to retire by 2035 varies sharply by country, with most of the world needing less than one coin, according to new research examining retirement costs across nearly 100 economies.
It comes as Bitcoin’s future value continues to be the subject of fierce debate, with a recent prediction going as high as $6 million in the near future.
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The study, conducted by independent researcher Sminston With, suggests that residents of high-income jurisdictions would typically need between one and five bitcoins, depending on age.
Younger people in countries including Ireland, Bermuda, Norway, and Luxembourg face higher requirements due to longer expected retirement periods.
How much BTC will you need to retire? | Source: Sminston With
By contrast, the research reveals substantially lower thresholds in countries with lower living costs, such as South Sudan and Cameroon.
In these countries, retirement could be funded with as little as 0.01 to 0.05 Bitcoin for some age groups.
In the U.S. and the U.K., the estimated requirement for most age brackets ranges from about 0.5 to 1 Bitcoin, while Canada’s projections start closer to 0.3 Bitcoin.
Bitcoin to $6M
The independent researcher has also provided a bullish estimate for Bitcoin using the so-called “2x/60x rule,” which links the asset’s age to its historical price growth.
Under the model, each doubling of Bitcoin’s lifespan has been associated with a roughly sixtyfold increase in price.
Bitcoin is currently about 6,200 days old, or just under 17 years.
Many people in the industry are extremely bullish on Bitcoin’s outlook.
Applying the same framework, the researcher projected that when the asset reaches roughly 34 years old, its price could exceed $6.7 million.
Garry Krugljakow, head of Bitcoin strategy at Aifinyo, said that “the real surprise in fifteen years won’t be a multi-million dollar Bitcoin.”
“The real surprise will be how obvious it looks in hindsight,” he added.
Bullish Senses or Optimism?
Over the past few months, several industry leaders have issued highly bullish predictions for the price of Bitcoin, both in the near term and over the long term.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, reiterated at Binance Blockchain Week that the asset was “going to get to $250,000 within a few months.”
Meanwhile, at Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor claimed that Bitcoin would increase “about 30% a year for the next 20 years.”
If this were to occur, CCN calculated that Bitcoin would be worth around $17 million in 20 years.
These bullish predictions have been met with skepticism from some in the industry, while others continue to embrace the outlook.
Bearish Signals
According to CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri, Bitcoin has been tracing a five-wave decline since reaching its all-time high.
If the wave count is correct, Tahiri noted that a final leg lower could be underway.
“The most likely target for its conclusion is between $70,100 and $72,000,” Tahiri wrote.
Tahiri added that the remainder of December could remain bearish for Bitcoin.
“Until key resistance is reclaimed, the path of least resistance remains down,” he wrote.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
