Key Takeaways
- The US has expanded its authority to sanction foreign people and businesses operating in or supporting Iran’s digital-asset sector.
- The measures do not sanction Bitcoin, XRP, or the wider crypto market, but could increase compliance pressure and amplify broader geopolitical risks.
- Benjamin Cowen’s $30,000–$40,000 Bitcoin scenario and Anthony Di Pizio’s $0.18 XRP are back in the spotlight.
The US has opened a new front in its pressure campaign against Iran by placing the country’s crypto sector within the reach of expanded sanctions.
On Monday, Aug. 24, the Treasury Department announced that foreign people and companies operating in five Iranian industries could now be sanctioned regardless of where they are based.
Although the measures do not target Bitcoin or XRP directly, they arrive as two severe crypto-market forecasts return to the spotlight.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen has said Bitcoin could eventually bottom between $30,000 and $40,000, while Motley Fool analyst Anthony Di Pizio has outlined a scenario under which XRP falls to approximately $0.18.
US Expands Sanctions Reach Into Iran’s Crypto Sector
The US Treasury said the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had issued new determinations covering Iran’s digital-asset, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping industries.
The decision forms part of “Operation Economic Outcast,” a broader attempt to isolate Tehran, restrict its oil revenue, and punish international networks accused of helping the Iranian government move money.
The decision gives OFAC broader authority to sanction foreign individuals or companies that operate in those sectors of Iran’s economy or provide services that support them.
The Treasury also imposed sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels across several jurisdictions.
One of the most significant crypto-related cases involved Ukrainian shipping broker Ivan Obukhov.
According to the Treasury, Obukhov has processed more than $100 million in crypto payments since 2023 to facilitate Iranian oil sales on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force.
OFAC also sanctioned Obukhov’s UAE-based company, Foscom FZE, alleging that he helped arrange Iranian oil shipments.
Washington Intensifies Its Wider Iran Campaign
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented the action as the beginning of a sustained international campaign targeting Iran’s sources of income.
The measures are designed to extend secondary-sanctions risk beyond Iran itself.
Foreign businesses accused of helping Tehran launder money or circumvent existing restrictions could lose access to the US financial system.
Bessent said businesses involved in converting Iranian oil into usable revenue would face enforcement, declaring that “no one is above the reach of US sanctions,” according to Al Jazeera.
The campaign comes almost six months into the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran.
Iran has also disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy shipments.
Meanwhile, Tehran has threatened further retaliation against countries that participate in Washington’s economic campaign.
What Could the Iran Sanctions Mean for Crypto?
The most immediate effect on crypto is likely to be tighter compliance.
Centralized exchanges could intensify wallet screening and restrict accounts connected to newly sanctioned entities.
Crypto companies with access to the US market may also avoid counterparties that cannot clearly demonstrate the origin of their funds.
The more significant threat to Bitcoin, XRP and other crypto may come through global markets.
If the campaign restricts Iranian oil exports or triggers further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy prices could add to inflation.
Persistent inflation could then reduce the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates, keeping borrowing costs and bond yields elevated.
That combination has historically created a difficult environment for crypto and speculative assets.
A stronger dollar could also weigh on crypto prices, while renewed geopolitical fear could push investors toward cash, government bonds, or gold.
However, none of those outcomes is guaranteed.
Could Bitcoin Still Fall to $30,000?
Benjamin Cowen remains open to another significant Bitcoin decline, despite the token’s sharp recovery from its July low.
In a YouTube video published on Friday, Aug. 21, Cowen said Bitcoin’s recent surge had produced conflicting signals over whether the bear-market bottom was already in.
The analyst said his strategy was to gradually accumulate Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year whenever his proprietary risk indicator fell below 0.3.
That threshold was reached for approximately five days around late June and early July, allowing him to begin buying.
However, Cowen said he had not yet accumulated as much Bitcoin as he would want ahead of another multi-year bull market.
His continued caution is based in part on Bitcoin’s historical performance during US midterm election years.
Cowen compared the latest recovery with rallies in 2018, 2019, and 2022 that initially appeared to mark the end of a bear market but were later followed by renewed declines.
The analyst said the current breakout could still prove bullish, particularly if Bitcoin holds above its 200-day moving average during its next pullback.
If BTC remains above that level for another two weeks, he said the probability that July marked the final bottom would increase considerably.
“At this point, it’s just too early to know,” Cowen said.
The analyst also said he would turn bullish and add to his Bitcoin position if another decline fails to materialize before the end of the year.
The analyst previously estimated that Bitcoin could find its eventual cycle low somewhere between $30,000 and $40,000.
A fall from approximately $79,000 to $30,000 would erase around 62% of Bitcoin’s value.
Meanwhile, a decline to $40,000 would represent a drop of roughly 49%.
Could XRP Price Collapse to $0.18?
Anthony Di Pizio raised an even more extreme downside scenario for XRP in an Aug. 13 analysis.
His argument was based partly on XRP’s previous boom-and-bust cycle.
XRP reached $3.65 last year before losing approximately 72% of its value.
Di Pizio compared that decline with the aftermath of XRP’s previous record high in 2018.
By mid-2020, the token had surrendered roughly 95% of its peak value and subsequently remained below $1 until November 2024.
Applying another 95% decline to XRP’s latest $3.65 peak would put the token at approximately $0.18.
Di Pizio said he was “not suggesting that will happen,” but described XRP’s recent move below $1 as a warning that further losses remained possible.
While there is no direct connection between the Iran sanctions and XRP, the token could suffer alongside the broader market if geopolitical tensions drain liquidity from altcoins.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
