Bitcoin has surged by roughly 9% to around $76,500.
Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran could quickly turn bullish momentum into a stress test for BTC.
Motley Fool analyst David Jagielski believes the CLARITY Act could help Bitcoin reclaim $100,000.
Benjamin Cowen previously mapped out a possible fall to $40,000.
Bitcoin’s sudden surge toward $77,000 has revived hopes of a return to $100,000, but President Donald Trump has now placed two very different forces in the crypto’s path.
On one side, Trump is pushing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and has confirmed that further accumulation of Bitcoin by the US government has been discussed.
On the other hand, the President’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran risks disrupting global trade, pushing up inflation, and triggering another flight from risk assets.
The conflicting signals arrive as analysts continue to debate whether Bitcoin can make a sustained recovery — or still faces a further fall toward $40,000.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ Could Test Bitcoin’s Rally
On Thursday, Trump promised a new phase of economic pressure against Iran after nearly six months of conflict failed to produce either a decisive military victory or a negotiated settlement.
The President has warned that countries continuing to trade with Iran could face severe economic consequences from the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to set out the mechanics of the campaign at an Aug. 24 news conference.
However, he has already warned governments and financial institutions that Washington is prepared to target oil purchases, money transfers, and shipping activity linked to Tehran.
For Bitcoin, the consequences remain to be seen.
An escalation that pushes energy prices higher and adds to inflation could hurt BTC in the short term.
However, the broader use of sanctions may strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce and politically neutral asset.
Trump Pushes CLARITY Act One Day Earlier
Speaking alongside crypto executives at an Aug. 19 White House event, Trump urged lawmakers to revive the stalled CLARITY Act.
“Now we need Congress to take the next step by passing the CLARITY Act,” Trump said, calling for a “fair version” of the legislation.
In a post on X, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse pointed to an estimate that 67 million Americans hold crypto and said the industry was no longer on the political fringe.
Trump also left the door open to another catalyst when asked whether the government could accumulate “sizable amounts” of Bitcoin.
“It’s been talked about,” Trump replied.
The President said he would listen to recommendations from SEC Chair Paul Atkins, CFTC Chair Michael Seli,g and other officials.
Bitcoin Price Surges as Shorts Are Wiped Out
Bitcoin was trading near $76,500 at the time of reporting, up around 21% from the below-$63,000 levels seen less than a week earlier.
According to CoinMarketCap analysis, Bitcoin now needs to defend the $72,300–$74,100 area to preserve the immediate breakout structure.
Holding that zone could put approximately $80,000 and $82,600 in view.
A drop below $68,700 would risk a retreat toward the 200-day moving average, which is currently near $66,400, the analysis noted.
Could the CLARITY Act Send Bitcoin Back to $100,000?
Motley Fool analyst David Jagielski said Bitcoin’s route back to $100,000 could depend heavily on the CLARITY Act.
In an Aug. 19 report, Jagielski argued that regulatory certainty could bring investment and innovation back to a market that had suffered from falling interest.
From approximately $76,500, Bitcoin would need to rise about 31% to reach $100,000.
That would be a major recovery, but it would still leave BTC roughly 21% below its October 2025 record of $126,000.
Jagielski’s warning is that the legislative catalyst is far from guaranteed.
He labeled three potential threats:
Midterm elections are approaching
The Senate calendar is tight
Bill still needs bipartisan support
If the vote fails or the legislation slips into 2027, the market could lose a catalyst that investors have been pricing in for months.
Benjamin Cowen Sees a Road to $40,000
While Jagielski is watching for a return to six figures, analyst Benjamin Cowen has outlined a much darker path.
Cowen previously said Bitcoin could fall toward $40,000. The analyst said it could form a bottom around November 2026 if its historical four-year pattern continues.
Cowen has also argued that the latest cycle peaked amid investor apathy rather than the retail euphoria seen in previous bull markets.
In his view, the lack of a broad altcoin boom made the market look more like 2019 than the speculative boom of 2017 or 2021.
A fall from $76,500 to $40,000 would erase nearly 48% of Bitcoin’s value.
Trump’s “economic D-Day” was not part of Cowen’s original forecast. However, its possible effects overlap with the risks behind his bearish case.
If secondary sanctions drive oil higher or strengthen demand for the dollar, financial conditions could tighten just as Bitcoin attempts to recover.
Equally, a successful vote on the CLARITY Act and a US Bitcoin purchase plan could invalidate the bearish roadmap.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
