Matt Thalman, a blogger for ino.com, a market trader website, does not intend to invest in bitcoin if a bitcoin ETF is approved in the near future, according to a recent blog post. He views bitcoin as still too new to invest in.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is soon expected to decide of the Winklevoss ETF, the first bitcoin ETF to file for approval in 2013. Since then, SolidX and Grayscale Investments have applied for bitcoin ETFs.
Thalman acknowledges that experts believe the bitcoin ecosystem could draw as much as $300 million in its first week following approval of a bitcoin ETF, which would likely drive the bitcoin price higher. But he is concerned about the secrecy surrounding bitcoin.
Thalman also acknowledges many people are encouraged by the fact that only the market, not a government or individual, controls the value of bitcoins.
However, Thalman, like others, points out that the same feature applies to gold.
The key difference between bitcoin and gold is that bitcoin is digital while gold is tangible.
Another difference he points to is that bitcoin has been highly volatile, a feature that could change, but nonetheless remains a concern.
Investors concerned about deflationary policies should choose gold, Thalman says. Gold has existed for thousands of years and its price is transparent, as are the vehicles in which it trades.
He sees secrecy in who started bitcoin, why it was started, and its traceability. The lack of traceability has made it popular for black market users. It has also made it a target for hackers.
Thalman claims these concerns make him wonder why he would take on so much risk with a “somewhat unproven investment.”
He believes bitcoin is a new technology and investment that could become great, but at the present time, there are too many unknowns about it.
He encourages investors to “stay on the sidelines” for at least a year should a bitcoin ETF be approved. Even with lower volatility, he expects bitcoin to continue to “be very much a roller-coaster in the coming year, meaning investors will have an opportunity to buy coins at lower prices in the future; so no need to worry about missing another bitcoin boom.”
In the interest of disclosure, the blog noted that Thalman has held positions in Facebook and did not receive compensation for the blog.
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