How Much Bitcoin Will Remain by 2028? A Deep Dive Into Halving, Scarcity & Supply

Key Takeaways

• As of April 2025, over 19.8 million BTC have already been mined, meaning 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already in circulation.
• Bitcoin’s supply issuance continues to slow, with the 2028 halving set to reduce daily mining rewards from 450 BTC/day in 2025 to 225 BTC/day after the halving.
• A large unknown portion of Bitcoin is considered illiquid, held in long-term storage, lost wallets, or strategic reserves, reducing what’s available for active trading.
• Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are accelerating, locking Bitcoin into long-term hands.

The 2028 Bitcoin halving is just three years away and is expected to be a significant event for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem. As part of Bitcoin’s built-in monetary policy, the halving plays a crucial role by reducing the rate at which new BTC is issued, directly influencing miner incentives and long-term supply dynamics.

This article explores the underlying mechanics of the Bitcoin halving. Examining halving implications, as well as insights valuable for investors, miners, and analysts preparing for the next phase of Bitcoin’s economic cycle.

What Is the Bitcoin Halving and Why It Will Matter in 2028

Bitcoin halving refers to the scheduled reduction in the block reward miners receive. It occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. During each halving, the number of new bitcoins generated per block is reduced by 50%.

Purpose of a Bitcoin Halving

• To control inflation: The halving gradually reduces new supply, enforcing a deflationary model.
• To maintain scarcity: Less issuance means tighter supply dynamics over time.

Previous Halvings

• 2012: Reward reduced from 50 to 25 BTC
• 2016: Reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC
• 2020: Reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC
• 2024: Reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC

In 2028, the reward is expected to fall again to 1.5625 BTC, significantly affecting issuance, miner incentives, and supply-side economics.

How Much Bitcoin Will Be Left to Mine by 2028?

As of April 25, 2025, approximately 19,855,345 BTC have already been mined out of the 21 million BTC cap, leaving 1,144,655 BTC remaining shown in the chart below.

Based on current issuance, the number of Bitcoins left to mine will drop below 1 million around February 10, 2026, assuming the block reward of 3.125 BTC and standard 10-minute intervals remain consistent.

By the time the 2028 halving occurs—projected around block 1,050,000—the following key benchmarks will be in place:

• BTC mined between 2024–2028 cycle: 210,000 blocks × 3.125 BTC reward per/block = 656,250 BTC mined over four years.
• Total BTC mined by 2028: 656,250 + 19,855,345 BTC ~20,511,595 BTC by 2028 halving.
• Percentage of total supply mined: ~97.7%
• BTC left to mine after 2028: ~488,405 BTC
• Remaining supply to be mined: ~2.3%, slowly issued until 2140.

This structured decline in issuance enforces the Bitcoin scarcity model, which underpins many long-term valuation frameworks such as the Stock-to-Flow model and supports the deflationary design embedded in the protocol.

How Many Bitcoins Are Permanently Lost?

It’s estimated that 3 to 4 million BTC have been lost forever. This aligns with gold’s unrecoverable supply (10–20% historically), making Bitcoin even scarcer in practice.

Common BTC Loss Scenarios:

• Lost private keys
• Sent to unspendable or faulty addresses
• Abandoned/forgotten wallets
• Deceased holders without recovery plans
• Deliberately burned coins

These lost Bitcoins reduce the true circulating supply and tighten the market well ahead of 2140.

Bitcoin’s Liquid Supply Set to Tighten by 2028: Why It Matters More Than Ever

By 2028, several structural shifts are expected to reduce available liquid BTC further and solidify its role as a strategic digital reserve asset.

Key Shifts by 2028

• Government & institutional accumulation: Strategic Bitcoin reserve policies may be in place. The U.S. Treasury, sovereign wealth funds, and others could collectively hold hundreds of thousands to 1 million BTC as part of long-term reserve strategies.
• Institutional adoption at scale: With the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved legal clarity, adoption by banks and asset managers and approval of altcoin ETFs, corporations will likely lock in long-term positions by 2028, removing more BTC from circulation.
• Regulatory clarity: Legislation like the FIT21 Act in the U.S. and other frameworks abroad are expected to give Bitcoin a clear status in regulated markets, accelerating adoption.

Accounting for Lost Coins: How Much Bitcoin Will Be Truly Available by 2028?

Taking estimates:

• BTC mined by 2028: ~20.51 million
• Estimated permanently lost BTC: ~3.5 million
• Institutional/government-held BTC: ~1–3 million
• Long-term held coins (LTHs): ~10–13 million BTC
  Remaining to mine after 2028: ~488,000 BTC

According to the above estimates, if demand for Bitcoin keeps increasing with the same momentum as it has been since 2009, only 5 to 7 million BTC may be truly liquid and accessible, depending on market behavior and investor conviction.

Bitcoin Supply Is Drying Up: Bitwise Data Shows Who Really Owns BTC

New research from Bitwise Asset Management highlights Bitcoin’s increasingly concentrated ownership. As of December 31, 2024, individuals hold roughly 69.4% of all Bitcoin, while only 5.7% remains to be mined. Other major holders include funds and ETFs (6.1%), businesses (4.4%), and governments (1.4%). Meanwhile, an estimated 7.5% of Bitcoin is permanently lost.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley emphasized that if companies, governments, and funds want more Bitcoin, they will mostly have to buy it from individual holders, many of whom have strong hands. 

OTC (over-the-counter) Bitcoin liquidity is also drying up fast, with analysts estimating less than 140,000 BTC left for institutional sourcing. As adoption accelerates and reserves thin out, Bitcoin’s already scarce supply could face a serious supply shock.

Understanding Bitcoin Liquidity: How Individual Holders Are Locking Up Supply

• On-chain data: As of April 2025, 63% of all BTC has not moved in over a year, indicated by the Hodl Wave chart above. In 2018, that number was closer to 40%. This indicates a strong rise in long-term holding.
• Institutional behavior: Strategic entities (e.g., El Salvador, public companies, ETFs) rarely liquidate. BTC is viewed as a strategic asset, not just a tradable commodity.
• Cold storage and multisig adoption: More BTC is stored in non-custodial, offline wallets, further reducing active supply.
• Overlap with lost BTC: The 65% figure includes many of the 3–4 million lost coins, which inflates long-term holding stats. But the effect on supply is real, those coins are permanently off the market.

How the 2028 Bitcoin Halving Could Impact BTC Price

By the time of the 2028 halving, approximately 97.7% of all Bitcoin will be mined, with daily issuance dropping to:

• Post-2028 issuance: 144 blocks × 1.5625 BTC = 225 BTC/day

That’s down from 900 BTC/day in 2023 and 450 BTC/day in 2025.

This dramatic reduction in issuance, paired with locked supply and growing demand, reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity curve. Whether the market responds immediately or gradually, the macroeconomic structure of Bitcoin becomes increasingly deflationary.

Conclusion

The 2028 halving will be the fifth in Bitcoin’s history and could prove to be its most impactful yet. By that time, only 2.3% of the total Bitcoin supply will remain to be mined, marking a significant milestone in the asset’s transition from issuance-driven inflation to long-term distribution dynamics.

Meanwhile, up to 65% of all Bitcoin may be illiquid, held in long-term storage, strategic reserves, or lost entirely, further tightening supply. Compounding this is that daily issuance will drop to just 225 BTC, down from 450 BTC per day post-2024 and 900 BTC per day before that.

By 2028, institutional and governmental adoption is also expected to be well underway, with spot ETFs, sovereign reserve strategies, and financial regulation providing a clearer framework for large-scale involvement.

While market outcomes remain uncertain, the structural transformation in Bitcoin’s supply, from gradual mining issuance to heavily concentrated long-term holdings, suggests that scarcity will be more real, measurable, and market-relevant than ever before.

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