Why the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Exists (And Keeps Winning)

Key Takeaways

• The 4-year cycle maps when to buy and sell, along with accumulation, breakout, euphoria and decline periods.
• Institutional demand may compress or prolong the 4-year cycle’s timing, but it hasn’t invalidated its recurring structure so far.
• Human emotion, driven by fear and greed, continues to reinforce Bitcoin’s cyclical market behavior.
• Predictability of Bitcoin’s issuance makes it a compelling long-term savings technology in uncertain macro environments.

Bitcoin cycles are recurring market patterns marked by shifts between bullish and bearish phases. Bull markets are driven by strong demand and optimistic sentiment, leading to sharp price increases, while bear markets are defined by price declines and more cautious, risk-averse investor behavior.

These fluctuations aren’t random and follow a rhythm deeply rooted in Bitcoin’s code. At the heart of this cycle is the Bitcoin halving, a scheduled event that reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created roughly every four years. This supply shock often sets the stage for the next major price cycle.

With the most recent halving taking place on April 20, 2024, the market is now entering a familiar phase, one that has historically paved the way for explosive price discovery.

This article explores whether Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle will continue to play out in 2025, or whether shifting market dynamics, institutional adoption, and sovereign interest could alter the cycle that’s been defined over a decade of price action.

Understanding the 4-Year Cycle: Bear, Accumulation, Bull & Euphoria

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle forms the backbone of its market behavior. Each cycle tends to follow four distinct phases:

• Bear market: Follows a euphoric top. Prices crash 70–80% from all-time highs. Sentiment turns fearful, which dries up volume and momentum.
• Accumulation phase: Smart money enters quietly. Prices stabilize. Volatility compresses. The public seems to have lost all interest.
• Bull market: The halving triggers a supply shock. Demand picks up. Price reclaims previous highs and institutions enter the market via financially innovative products.
• Euphoria phase: Momentum traders, retail, and media coverage peak. Prices go parabolic, then collapse shortly after.

The 2017 cycle peaked at approximately $20,000, followed by an 80% crash. The 2021 cycle hit $69,000 before retracing to $15,500. Both were kick-started by previous halvings and followed this 4-phase structure.

Current Phase of the 2024–2025 Bitcoin Cycle, Explained

The fourth Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2024, cutting block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125. The Bitcoin market is now approaching one year post-halving, which has historically marked the start of the steepest part of the bull run.

Despite recent 20%+ drawdowns, many believe the market is simply shaking out weak hands, not ending the cycle. Bitcoin is still widely considered on track to reach $200,000 by Q4 2025, as outlined in the chart above, and also a level outlined by the power law model, gaining the most traction among market observers. Current conditions suggest Bitcoin is in the mid-bull or “sweet spot” phase, just before potential euphoria.

Will Institutions Break the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle: Is the Pattern Still Reliable?

With the entrance of ETFs, sovereign interest, and corporate adoption, it is a fair assessment to wonder if the 4-year cycle is over.

There’s no clear answer yet, but evidence points to institutions possibly extending cycles, not ending them. Institutions buy slowly and in bulk. Institutional interest may suppress volatility at tops and bottoms, smoothing out extremes but not removing the pattern altogether.

The Bitcoin halving still affects miners, supply dynamics, and public narrative. These factors are unchanged and they’re core to the cycle.

What If the U.S. Buys 1 Million Bitcoin (BTC)?

America’s potential Bitcoin accumulation via Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is now a real possibility. 

As Congressman Nick Begich explained, March 11, 2025, “The Bitcoin Act establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and ensures America will remain the dominant player in the digital financial era by strengthening our national economic security.” Under the proposed plan, the United States would acquire 1 million Bitcoin over the next five years, representing nearly 5% of the 21M supply.

To do this without causing a price shock, the U.S. could utilize:

• OTC strategy: Use over-the-counter deals and ETF arrangements to avoid impacting spot markets.
• BitBonds: Issue Bitcoin-backed bonds to fund BTC accumulation without tapping taxpayer dollars.
• State participation: Rely on state-level treasury purchases to distribute acquisition efforts across the U.S.

If enacted, this accumulation could result in:

• Demand acceleration: Front-load institutional and sovereign demand earlier in the cycle.
• Supply squeeze: Tighten the circulating supply of available Bitcoin even further.
• Game theory trigger: Spark a global Bitcoin arms race as other nations race to catch up.

Would this end the 4-year cycle? 

Unlikely.  Institutional involvement might accelerate price action or cause an early top, but the market is still driven by human emotions and humans tend to move in cycles. 

Human Psychology: Why the Cycle Keeps Winning

Across every cycle, investors often intend to buy during periods of low valuation and exit during market peaks. Yet, repeatedly, the same emotional forces influence investors, such as fear during downturns and greed during price rallies.

During euphoric phases, optimism tends to cloud judgment, creating the illusion of limitless upside. Conversely, in downturns, pessimism dominates, and many believe the decline is irreversible. As long as human emotion plays a central role in trading behavior, Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns are likely to persist.

Can the 4-Year Cycle Shorten to 3.5 Years?

Yes, it’s possible that the current cycle period could reach its peak earlier, perhaps in early to mid-2025, without breaking the underlying 4-year market cycle. This would not necessarily invalidate the 4-year cycle, but it could reflect a compressed version of it.

Several factors could accelerate the above-mentioned timeline:

• Early accumulation: Bitcoin veterans, institutional funds, and sovereign entities may be front-running the halving, stacking positions well in advance and ready to lock in profits earlier.
• Stronger demand: Increased conviction among institutional buyers is bringing more sustained demand earlier in the cycle.
• Faster liquidity triggers: Macroeconomic catalysts like regulatory clarity or dollar weakness could fast-track capital inflows into Bitcoin.
• Macroeconomic tension: Escalating U.S.–China tariffs could disrupt global trade, weaken fiat currencies, and drive investors toward non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.
• Inflation hedge narrative: As tariffs contribute to higher consumer prices and inflationary pressure, Bitcoin’s appeal as a long-term value store may strengthen among retail and institutional investors.

In this scenario, the 4-year cycle phases may unfold more quickly:

• Institutions enter early: As institutions enter early, they absorb supply before retail awakens.
• Retail flows in later: Retail takes time, but still will be there to chase momentum at the latter stages.
• Blow-off top: A blow-off top occurs slightly ahead of Q4 2025, potentially marking the peak of a shorter, yet still 4-year-aligned cycle.

Why the 4-Year Cycle Drives Real Bitcoin Adoption?

The 4-year cycle doesn’t just shape market expectations but strengthens Bitcoin’s reliability as a long-term savings vehicle.

• Predictability: With a transparent issuance schedule and historically consistent performance, Bitcoin offers long-term savers a clear time horizon for value appreciation and strategic financial planning.
• Credibility: As a decentralized asset with a fixed supply, Bitcoin functions as a hedge against currency debasement and inflationary monetary policies.
• Accessibility: The simplicity of the 4-year cycle makes Bitcoin more understandable and usable, even for those without deep technical knowledge.

Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior gives it the characteristics of a programmable savings instrument. Investors who commit capital across a full cycle, particularly over a 4+ year horizon, have historically outperformed traditional assets. a

As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin outperformed all other major asset classes in 8 of the 11 years between 2013 and 2023, frequently delivering returns well above equities, bonds, commodities, and emerging markets. Despite its year-to-year volatility, long-term holders have consistently captured Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside, strengthening its position as a reliable long-term store of value.

Conclusion

While some argue that institutional involvement, sovereign accumulation, and macro shifts could alter the 4-year cycle, the more profound truth is that the cycle reflects predictable behavior and belief and is a time-tested economic pattern.

The next peak may arrive earlier than expected and institutions may influence volatility. However, as long as Bitcoin’s issuance schedule remains fixed and human psychology remains intact, the core dynamics of the cycle are likely to continue. Which gives insiders of this 4-year cycle an edge.

From everyday savers to sovereign states, Bitcoin rewards those who spend time in the market instead of waiting for the market. The 4-year cycle isn’t a promise—it’s a signal, a historical pattern. Bitcoin’s built-in predictability may be one of its greatest strengths in an era of economic instability and global uncertainty.

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