Avalanche Price Prediction 2024: AVAX Price Analysis

  Key Takeaways

• The Avalanche blockchain, engineered for speed and resistance to network slowdown, has seen fewer people using its C-Chain. 
• The price of AVAX has fallen by 45% so far in 2024.
• Our Avalanche price predictions suggest the price can increase significantly in 2024.

After peaking at $65 on March 18, AVAX experienced a significant decline, with the crypto’s price collapsing by more than half over the following five months. Investors hope that crypto can recover from its recent downturn.

On Aug. 16, 2024, AVAX exchanged hands for $20.36.

Let’s examine our price predictions for Avalanche, made on Aug. 16, 2024. We will also examine the AVAX price history and discuss what Avalanche is and does.

Avalanche Price Prediction

CCN’s Avalanche price predictions are based on a combination of fractal analysis and wave count analysis.

We generate a comprehensive price forecast by averaging the results of these two methods.

We also provide a maximum and minimum price prediction, representing the more bullish and bearish scenarios.

This approach lets us offer readers a more nuanced understanding of the Avalanche’s potential price movements.

Fractal Method

In June 2021, the 3-day RSI and MACD for AVAX both generated bullish divergences (green) after an 85% decline that lasted for 159 days.

Afterward, the AVAX price started to climb, beginning a 1,480% upward movement for 126 days, leading to the all-time high price of $147.57 in November 2021.

A similar bullish divergence happened in August 2024. However, it transpired after a weaker decline of 67%, with the same duration.

We can use the ratio between the declines to determine the potential top. Doing so led to a new all-time high of $259 in December 2024.

Then, we can project a similar lengthy decline as the one that happened after the November 2021 all-time high.

During these projected upward and downward movements, the fractal method predicts an AVAX price of $215 and $30 at the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Wave Count Method

The most likely wave count suggests that AVAX started a five-wave increase in September 2023. If this is the case, AVAX has just completed wave two in this increase. We can use the 1.61 length of wave one to find the top of wave three and then the 2.61 wave one extension for the top of wave five.

This projection leads to a high of $156.61 in June 2025.

After reaching the high, we project a similar correction to the one that resulted after the 2021 all-time high price.

During these projected upward and downward movements, the wave count method leads to an AVAX price prediction of $100 and $56 for the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Finally, we use the daily rate of increase since launch to make an AVAX price prediction for the end of 2030. AVAX has increased at a daily rate of 0.32% since its launch, and projecting this increase until the end of 2030 leads to an AVAX price prediction of $175. We add and remove 20% from this target to develop our minimum and maximum Avalanche price predictions.

Avalanche Price Prediction 2024

The wave count and fractal methods give different AVAX price predictions for the end of 2024. The fractal method predicts a sharper and faster increase, leading to its $215 target. On the other hand, the wave count gives an AVAX price prediction of $100 for the end of 2024.

Avalanche Price Prediction 2025 

The wave count and fractal methods give more similar AVAX price predictions for the end of 2025. This is because they both imply that the price of AVAX will be retracing. The wave count gives a target of $56, while the fractal one is $30.

Avalanche Price Prediction 2030

Using the daily rate of increase since launch leads to an AVAX price prediction of $175 for the end of 2030. 

Avalanche Price Analysis

The daily AVAX chart shows a decrease inside a descending parallel channel since the yearly high in March 2024. During this descent, the channel’s support and resistance trend lines have been validated several times.

On Aug. 5, the price of Avalanche bounced at the channel’s support trend line and the $19 horizontal support area, creating a long lower wick (white icon). All these are considered signs of a bullish trend.

In addition, the daily RSI and MACD both generated bullish divergences (green), enhancing the likelihood of a bullish trend reversal.

So, the most likely future outlook is an increase toward the channel’s resistance trend line at $27.

Short-Term AVAX Price Prediction

The Avalanche price prediction for the next 24 hours suggests that AVAX will gradually increase toward the channel’s resistance trend line. If a similar rate of increase is followed, AVAX will reclaim the channel’s midline during the weekend and reach the resistance trend line next week.

Avalanche Average True Range (ATR): AVAX Volatility

The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days. A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility.

On Aug. 16, 2024, the weekly ATR for AVAX was 6.84, a sign of low volatility. The ATR has fallen since January 2022 but started upward in October 2023. Divided by the $20.54 AVAX price, the ATR is 0.42.

Avalanche Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is AVAX Oversold or Undersold?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Movements above 70 and below 30 show over and undervaluation, respectively. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish.

On Aug. 16, 2024, Avalanche’s weekly RSI was 39, a sign of a bearish trend. The RSI crashed below 50 in May.

Avalanche Market Cap to TVL Ratio

The Market Cap to Total Value Locked (TVL) ratio  measures the valuation of a decentralized finance (DeFi) project by comparing its market capitalization to the total value of assets locked in its smart contracts. This ratio shows the project’s utilization and links the platform’s health to locked asset value.

A ratio above 1.0 indicates overvaluation because the market cap exceeds the value of assets used in the platform. A ratio below 1.0 indicates undervaluation because the market cap is lower than the value of locked assets.

On Aug. 16, 2024, the Avalanche TVL ratio was 5.71, indicating overvaluation.

Best Days and Months to Buy Avalanche

We looked at the AVAX price history and found the times when the price was at its lowest across certain days, months, quarters, and even weeks in the year, indicating the best times to buy AVAX.

Price Performance Comparisons

Avalanche is a smart contracts platform, so let’s compare it with similar projects.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Avalanche

Blockchain analytics company Messari  recently released its quarterly report on Avalanche. The report outlined some key advantages and disadvantages of blockchain.

It found that Avalanche had

• An impressive quarterly growth in the first quarter of 2024, including market cap increasing by 38%.
• Average daily active addresses jumped by 39% compared to the last quarter of 2023.
• DeFi TVL rose by 45%, the average daily DEX volume increased by 65%, and the stablecoin market cap jumped by 43%.

Advantages of Avalanche

Messari said that Avalanche

• Had worked towards developing its non-fungible token (NFT) sector.
• Released a number of well-received upgrades.
• Did a good job of bringing Web 2.0 organizations onto the blockchain.

Disadvantages of Avalanche

Messari also said that Avalanche

• Underperformed its peers in the quarter.
• Did not have a particularly active developer base.
• Had seen activity on some of its subnets slow down.

AVAX Price History

Now, let’s examine some of the highlights and lowlights of the Avalanche price history. While we should never take past performance as an indicator of future results, knowing what the coin has achieved can provide useful context if we want to make or interpret an Avalanche price prediction.

2020-2021: The AVAX price increased shortly after its launch and continued its positive performance in 2021. Its first upward movement was in January, followed by a lengthy correction until June. Then, AVAX started another increase, leading to the all-time high price of $146 in November.

2022-2023: Most of 2022 and 2023 were bearish, leading to a significant decline in the price of AVAX. This culminated with a low of $11.69, a 90% drop from the all-time high. However, the price started a gradual upward movement afterward, which accelerated in December. The price of Avalanche closed the year at $39.

2024: AVAX increased at the beginning of the year, reaching a new yearly high of $60.39 in March. However, it has fallen since and traded at $20.51 today, on Aug. 16.

Avalanche Market Cap

The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of AVAX in circulation multiplied by their price. On Aug. 16, 2024, Avalanches’s market cap was $8.04 billion, making it the 15th largest crypto by that metric.

Who owns the most Avalanche?

On Aug. 16, 2024, one wallet held 0.60% of AVAX’s supply.

Richest AVAX Wallet Addresses

On Aug. 16, 2024, the five addresses with the most AVAX  were

• 0xefdc8FC1145ea88e3f5698eE7b7b432F083B4246, which held 4,304,710 AVAX or 0.60% of the supply
• 0x73AF3bcf944a6559933396c1577B257e2054D935, which held 2,240,553 AVAX or 0.31% of the supply.
• 0x2eFB50e952580f4ff32D8d2122853432bbF2E204, which held 1,256,830 AVAX or 0.17% of the supply.
• 0x94Db98738D90BC0Ac588D4c2247721B1ef2127Be. This wallet held 1,000,008 AVAX or 0.14% of the supply
• 0x40B38765696e3d5d8d9d834D8AaD4bB6e418E489, which has 1,000,003 AVAX or 0.14% of the supply.

Avalanche Supply and Distribution

From the Avalanche Whitepaper

Avalanche  describes itself as a “high-performance, scalable, customizable and secure” blockchain in its technical documentation or whitepaper. It sets out three uses.

• Building application-specific blockchains, spanning permissioned (private) and permissionless (public) deployments.
• Building and launching highly scalable and decentralized applications (Dapps).
• Building arbitrarily complex digital assets with custom rules, covenants, and riders (smart assets).

Avalanche (AVAX) Explained

Avalanche is a blockchain that is designed to be scalable. In other words, it is meant not to slow down when the network gets busier, thus saving people who use it time and, perhaps more importantly, money. 

Like Ethereum (ETH), Avalanche uses smart contracts, computer programs that automatically execute once certain conditions are met. 

Its native coin, which goes by the ticker handle AVAX, supports the system.

How Avalanche Works

Avalanche makes use of a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. This means that people are selected to verify transactions and blocks added to the blockchain-based on how much AVAX they have. 

The system consists of three separate but intertwined blockchains.

The Contract Chain, or C-Chain, helps users work with Ethereum-based decentralized applications (dApps).

The Exchange Chain, or X-Chain, is used to swap and trade AVAX and crypto tokens based on Avalanche.

Finally, the Platform Chain, or P-Chain, lets users set up their side chains that link to the Avalanche platform and, perhaps more importantly, create their crypto tokens. 

Using three chains means, at least in theory, that the platform is faster. This eliminates the need for layer 2 scaling solutions, platforms that take a transaction off a blockchain, carry it out, and put it back in an attempt to save users time and money.  

AVAX helps people secure the system. People can also stake it or set it aside in return for rewards. People can stake their AVAX to another user, delegating certain responsibilities to them, again in return for rewards paid in AVAX.

AVAX holders can also vote on changes to the network, buy, sell, and trade on exchanges, and use it to pay for transactions on Avalanche. When that happens, the coin is burned or destroyed. 

Is Avalanche a Good Investment?

It is hard to say. On one hand, Avalanche is one of the larger blockchain platforms out there, and the fact that it performed well at a poor time for crypto is encouraging. 

Avalanche Vista’s launch could also increase interest in the platform.

On the other hand, AVAX has previously underperformed against the market, so it remains to be seen whether it will revert to type. It has certainly had a weak 2024 so far. While there is a belief that people should buy in the dip, we don’t know how long it will last nor what it could recover to exactly. 

As ever with crypto, you will need to do your own research before deciding whether or not to invest in AVAX.

Will Avalanche go up or down?

No one can really tell right now. While the Avalanche crypto price predictions are largely positive, price predictions have a well-earned reputation for being wrong. Keep in mind that prices can and do go down and up. 

Should I invest in Avalanche?

Before you decide whether or not to invest in Avalanche, you will have to do your own research, not only on AVAX but also on other related coins and tokens such as Cardano (ADA) or Solana (SOL). Either way, you will also need to make sure that you never invest more money than you can afford to lose.

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About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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