Today, we will take yet one more look at the long term, 8-day candle chart of BTC, per Kraken.
We looked at a bull setup from the Jan 2015 over the weekend and saw indications that BTC will likely be in a bull market through the end of the year.
Then yesterday we looked at a bear setup from the Nov 2013 high, and saw kind of a foggy picture. Not very bearish, and not very bullish. Significant overhead resistance at ~ $714.
Gann spoke of ‘wheels within wheels’, an image that I believe referred to the fractal nature of the markets. Knowing that the markets are indeed fractal, let’s take another bull setup of the long term chart, but this time anchor it on the start of the rally BTC has been in for a few months. Here we will see yet more indications that the market is likely to continue higher for a few months.
This is a rather bullish chart. Note that the rally began in earnest as soon as pricetime cleared the 2nd arc pair. But it was stopped cold by both the top of the 2nd square and the 3rd arc pair. 3rd arc pairs very often stop rallies.
Price fell all the way to the Gann 3×1 angle, moved sideways through the 3rd arc pair and began to rise again the moment price time cleared the 3rd arc pair. This is all signs of a bull market that isn’t likely to stop in the near future. Indeed, it will almost certainly hit the 4th arc before it seriously stumbles.
However, I am of the opinion that the 4th arc pair will not likely be the end of the present bull move. It is my opinion that this bull market will more than likely go to the 5th arc, even if it stumbles at the 4th arc pair. But where and when might we forecast a long term target?
Let’s look at an Andrews Pitchfork next, set on the 3 most conspicuous points on the chart. The lower dotted blue line will act as resistance when price gets to it. So lets’ superimpose the previous bull setup onto the same chart and see where the lower blue dotted line intersects the 5th arc.
Having done that, we see some VERY round numbers. It is WAY too early to see if this forecast will pan out, but the intersection we were looking for is ~ 1,000, and the date is ~1/1/2017.
Hhhmmmm…… Very round indeed.
In our next article we will look at a daily chart, now that we have a feel for the likely long-term trend.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
Charts from Kraken.
Featured image from iStock.