XRP Struggles Against BTC But USD Breakout Signals Bullish Reversal

Key Takeaways

• XRP broke out from a descending wedge pattern.
• The price has increased by 35% since its April lows.
• Can XRP sustain its breakout and reach new highs?

XRP is showing signs of life after a sluggish start to the year, with a 35% rally since its April lows.

While momentum has waned slightly in the past 24 hours, XRP price still trades above its primary support levels.

Last week, positive XRP news came as Aave announced that its users can borrow and supply RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, on Aave v3.

XRP’s rally to end 2024 set high expectations. The market is watching closely to see if this breakout can reignite XRP’s bull run.

XRP Price Breaks Out

XRP’s price has increased since bouncing at the support trend line of a descending wedge pattern on April 7 (green icon).

The descending wedge pattern is bullish, and XRP’s bounce created a long lower wick, which is considered a sign of buying pressure.

XRP’s price action since the bounce is also positive. The price reclaimed the $2.05 area during its ascent and broke out from the wedge.

Today, the price of XRP attempts to validate the wedge and the $2.05 area as support.

Technical indicators are positive but not decisive, since they have not yet confirmed their breakouts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence are increasing but are close to their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively.

Therefore, the daily time frame analysis leans bullish, but does not confidently predict that the XRP price will continue to increase toward $2.50.

XRP Looks for Support

The shorter-term six-hour analysis supports the bullish trend reversal.

XRP’s wave count illustrates that the price has completed a five-wave upward movement since April 7.

The rally had an ascending wedge shape, indicating a leading diagonal.

The increase could be either wave A or wave one in a larger structure in the long term.

Both possibilities suggest that at least another upward movement will follow.

The short-term XRP prediction is the same, regardless of which count plays out.

The RSI’s lack of a bearish divergence in the higher highs supports this count since one would be expected if XRP were to begin a bearish trend reversal.

XRP Struggles Against Bitcoin

XRP might be showing strength in USD terms, but it’s telling a different story when charted against Bitcoin.

On the daily XRP/BTC chart, the price has been stuck inside a descending triangle since January, and key support around 2,350 satoshis is now being tested.

The technicals aren’t promising: the RSI is sliding, and the MACD has made a bearish cross.

If this pattern breaks down, XRP could fall toward the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, which sit between 1,710 and 2,040 satoshis.

In short, XRP bulls might still have room to run in the short term against USD, but its performance against BTC remains a concern.

Mixed Trend Ahead

The XRP USD chart shows a breakout from the wedge, which will likely continue in May.

Conversely, the XRP to BTC chart is bearish, predicting a breakdown from the descending triangle pattern.

So, while the XRP price will likely increase in May, its performance could lag behind Bitcoin’s.