What Would It Take for XRP to Reach $100? — And Why It Hasn’t Yet
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Key Takeaways
XRP is showing a bullish divergence, with capital inflows improving despite recent price weakness.
On-chain data suggests seller exhaustion, with weak hands exiting while larger holders absorb supply.
If XRP holds the $2 support zone, a rebound toward $2.42 and possibly $3 becomes plausible.
XRP seems ready to defy the broader market gloom. While the “Greenland Tariff” shock triggered a $870 million liquidation event for the crypto market, XRP is flashing a rare bullish divergence on the daily chart
This move comes after the altcoin dropped below $2, and suggests that a recovery toward the $3 psychological milestone could be next.
But is that possible? Let’s evaluate it.
XRP Flashes Buy Signal
XRP’s resilience in 2026 looks less like hype and more like institutional absorption.
While tariff headlines briefly rattled risk assets, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflow days, but XRP-linked products kept drawing steady demand.
In fact, spot XRP ETFs extended their inflow streak and pushed cumulative inflows to about $1.37 billion since their late-2025 launch.
At the same time, XRP’s price is partially insulated from the CLARITY Act drama. Coinbase withdrew its support for the revised bill on Jan. 14, injecting uncertainty into the broader altcoin complex.
Despite that, XRP’s price seems ready to recover from the recent drop. As seen below, the altcoin has stabilized around $1.93, and the next fight sits near $2.35, where the 9-day EMA acts as overhead supply.
Furthermore, XRP’s price trades near $1.92 and is testing the support after rejection at the $2.20 supply zone and sliding inside a descending channel.
Selling has looked controlled, and volume has eased as price reached support, suggesting fading downside pressure.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds a constructive signal because it has been rising while the price has been falling.
That creates a bullish divergence and suggests capital inflows are improving even as the candles drift lower.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is barely positive and flattening, suggesting weak but stabilizing momentum.
If XRP holds $1.90 to $1.95 and breaks out of the channel, it can rebound toward $2.05 to $2.10, with $2.20 as the main ceiling.
Weak Hands Continue to Leave
Outside of that, XRP price overlaid with daily on-chain transaction volume in loss, which measures how much XRP is being transferred on-chain at prices lower than when those coins were last acquired.
When the blue bars expand, it means a large number of holders are realizing losses. On the left and middle parts of the chart, you can see repeated spikes in loss volume during downswings.
Each of those spikes coincides with local price lows, which suggests that weak hands were exiting while stronger hands were absorbing supply.
As the chart progresses into December, both price and loss volume compress. Blue bars become smaller and less frequent, showing that fewer holders are willing to sell at a loss.
This reduction in loss realization often signals seller exhaustion, because most participants who wanted to exit have already done so. Price then stabilizes and begins to form a base.
More recently, XRP’s price has pulled back again toward the $1.93 to $ 2 area.
At the same time, loss volume has started to rise but has not reached the extreme spikes seen earlier in the chart. That tells us selling pressure exists, but it is not yet complete capitulation.
Instead, several holders are holding through the drawdown rather than panicking.
What this likely means for price is balance rather than collapse. If loss volume suddenly spikes higher while price breaks support, that would suggest a final flush.
However, by the look of things, the loss volume might stay moderate or begin to fade. If that happens, XRP’s price might stabilize, possibly rising above $2.
Road to Higher XRP Price Not Clear Yet
On the other hand, the XRP exchange net position change shows a critical signal.
Green bars mean more XRP is moving onto exchanges, while red bars mean more XRP is being withdrawn from exchanges. The black line represents XRP’s price.
From late July to early August, the chart shows a steady stream of green bars, indicating XRP was flowing into exchanges.
During that period, XRP’s price struggled to move higher. This behavior fits a distribution phase, in which supply quietly builds on exchanges before the price weakens.
From mid-August through early September, the bars flipped red, showing sustained outflows.
During this phase, the cryptocurrency’s price stabilized and even attempted a rebound.
The most crucial section appears between early October and mid-November. Around that time, red bars deepen dramatically, reaching extreme negative values.
That means massive XRP outflows from exchanges, far larger than anything earlier in the cycle. At the same time, the price moves sideways to lower rather than collapsing.
This divergence is critical. It suggests strong absorption, where large holders are accumulating aggressively while the price remains suppressed.
Most recently, inflows remain positive but smaller, while the price pulls back from its highs. This suggests that distribution is happening, but not aggressively.
Sellers are active, yet they are not flooding exchanges the way they did during earlier tops.
Overall, this chart tells a clear story. XRP spent months in heavy accumulation, with coins steadily leaving exchanges even while the price stayed weak.
In the meantime, the current inflow phase reflects profit-taking after that move, not yet structural weakness.
So, it is likely that XRP’s price could soon hit bottom. If that is the case, a rally toward $3 could be in the cards.
XRP Price Outlook
On the weekly chart, XRP trades near $1.92 and remains in a broader corrective phase after failing near the $3 area.
Price has been trading within a clear descending channel since the mid-2025 peak, indicating that sellers still control the higher timeframe trend.
The recent candles continue to print lower highs, so the market has not yet confirmed a structural reversal.
Furthermore, the price is now near the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 2.03. This zone is providing support for now, while the 0.382 level near $1.64 stands out as the next primary downside target if selling resumes.
Above the current XRP price, the 0.618 level near $2.42 remains the key recovery threshold that would need to be reclaimed to weaken the bearish structure.
Momentum, however, is starting to shift subtly. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is rising from deeply oversold levels while price continues to drift lower, creating a bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe.
That divergence suggests selling pressure is losing strength and that longer-term buyers are beginning to step in, even though the price has not responded yet.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
