Monero (XMR) Breaks Key Resistance but Struggles to Stay Above $200

Monero (XMR) has been gaining momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and reaching its highest price in months.

This recent bullish activity is part of a broader trend in the cryptocurrency market, with XMR showing strong potential for further gains after a brief retracement.

XMR Price Analysis

Monero (XMR) has successfully broken out of a descending channel that had constrained its price since 2021, signaling a major shift in momentum.

The breakout pushed XMR past the $175-$185 resistance zone, a level that had acted as a strong ceiling during prior attempts to reverse the trend. 

This move culminated in a rally to $228, marking a key inflection point as it aligns with significant historical resistance. Following the breakout, the price faced a sharp rejection and is again approaching the $175-$185 region. 

This level coincides with the previous resistance and sits within the broader structure of the new bullish trend, making it critical for further upward continuation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought levels during the breakout, suggesting the current retracement is a necessary cooling phase before the next potential leg up. If the $175-$185 zone holds, XMR could resume its uptrend, targeting $250 as the next resistance level, while a failure to hold could see the price revisit lower support around $150.

Key Observations

• Breakout Confirmation: XMR broke out of a long-term descending channel, reclaiming the $175-$185 zone as support.
• Resistance at $228: Rejection at $228 confirms it as a key resistance level.
• RSI Cooling: Overbought RSI signals a potential pause, with $175-$185 as a critical support zone.

XMR Price Prediction 

Monero (XMR) has entered a corrective phase after a strong wave (iii) rally, reaching a high of $228 before pulling back.

The price is currently in wave (iv) of the broader Elliott Wave sequence, with a potential consolidation near critical support levels before the next bullish wave (v) resumes.

This structure aligns with the overall bullish trend, with wave (iv) expected to form above prior resistance zones that have now become key support.

The immediate retracement targets include the 0.236 Fib level at $189, with stronger support at the 0.382 Fib level at $161.

These levels coincide with prior breakout zones, making them critical to maintain the integrity of the bullish Elliott Wave structure. A successful hold above these supports would set the stage for wave (v), targeting the next resistance levels at $246 and $291.

The RSI has cooled off from overbought conditions, allowing for the next upward movement.

However, failure to hold above $161 could cause the price to revisit deeper support levels, with $134 serving as the lower boundary for wave (iv).

Key Levels to Watch

Support Levels

$189 (0.236 Fib): Immediate wave (iv) correction support.

$161 (0.382 Fib): Strong support aligned with prior breakout levels.

$134: Key structural support if correction deepens.

Resistance Levels

$228 (1.272 Fib): Immediate resistance and wave (iii) high.

$246 (1.618 Fib): Next bullish target in wave (v).

$291 (2.272 Fib): Extended wave (v) target and potential new high.

About the Author

Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis.

Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information.

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.

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