Monero (XMR) Consolidates as 910-Day Resistance Becomes Key for Next Move

Key Takeaways

• The Monero (XMR) price attempts to break out above $175.
• It is trading inside a long-term ascending parallel channel.
• Can XMR break out from the horizontal and channel resistance?

The Monero price has not performed well in 2024 and is 3% below the yearly open. Furthermore, several times, the price has failed to break out above a key resistance area.

Nevertheless, the price started upward in August and attempted to break out from the resistance area. Let’s analyze the price movement and see if this is the increase that finally causes a long-term breakout.

XMR Consolidates Under Resistance

The weekly time frame XMR chart shows that the price has fallen since May 2021, when it reached a high of $517. Then, it followed a descending resistance trend line, falling below the $175 horizontal resistance area.

The XMR price broke out from the descending resistance trend line in June and attempted to break out from the $175 resistance area, albeit unsuccessfully. Until now, XMR has made five unsuccessful breakout attempts (black icons), while the resistance has existed for 910 days.

Technical indicators do not lean in either direction. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 50, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is falling slightly above 0.

So, the weekly time frame readings do not confirm if the trend is bullish or bearish. The next resistance is $310, 95% above the current price.

Nevertheless, there was some positive Monero news today, regarding the launch of Monerod GUI , a new desktop application  that simplifies running a Monero node.

What’s Next for Monero?

While the price action and indicator readings are undetermined, the wave count predicts an upward movement. The most likely wave count suggests the upward movement since May 2022 is part of a complex, W-X-Y corrective structure.

If waves W:Y have a 1:1 ratio, XMR will reach a high of $195. This would also reach the resistance trend line of a long-term ascending parallel channel, increasing the likelihood it is the correct count.

If wave Y extends and has 1.61 times the length of wave W, the price can reach a high of $250. So, while the wave count gives a bullish prediction, the target is lower than that of the XMR price action if the $175 resistance breaks.

XMR Price Trend Unclear

In long-term time frames, Monero has mixed readings. The price action and indicators are undetermined, while the wave count is slightly bullish.

A breakout from the $175 resistance can trigger an upward movement. Even if the price breaks out, the wave count and price action give different targets.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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