The Monero (XMR) price trades under a long-term horizontal resistance area.
XMR has already broken out from a shorter-term diagonal resistance level.
Can XMR sustain its short-term breakout and begin a long-term upward trend?
The Monero price has not performed well in the current market cycle. While most of the crypto market began an upward movement in 2023, the XMR price is only 20% above the 2023 open and 5% above the 2024 one.
This could soon change if the price of XMR breaks out from a long-term resistance that has existed for over 860 days. Let’s examine the price movement and see how likely this breakout is.
XMR Price Attempts Breakout
The weekly chart shows that the price of Monero had decreased since 2021 when it reached a high of $517. In August of the same year, the price started falling under a descending resistance trend line.
Unlike the rest of the crypto market, the price did not begin moving upward in 2023. Rather, it fell to new lows in January 2024.
However, the trend might have begun to change in 2024, starting with the breakout from the descending resistance trend line in June and its subsequent validation.
Over the past 861 days, the XMR price has traded under the $175 horizontal resistance area. It has made five unsuccessful breakout attempts (black icons).
Because of the movement from the resistance trend line, the next one may be successful.
The weekly RSI and MACD readings also support this possibility. Both indicators are increasing; the RSI is above 50, and the MACD is above 0.
If a breakout happens, the next resistance will be $310, 80% above the current price.
Monero Falls Against Bitcoin
Even though the XMR to USD chart looks bullish, that against BTC is not. XMR fell to a new all-time low of ₿0.0016 in April, breaking down from the ₿0.0038 horizontal support area.
The wave count also shows a five-wave decline, implying that the trend is still bearish.
Despite breaking out from a descending resistance trend line, the trend is considered bearish unless XMR reclaims this area.
Another rejection from the ₿0.0038 could cause the XMR price to decline to a new all-time low.
XMR Price Could Rally
The weekly timeframe chart for XMR is bullish, implying a long overdue breakout above the $175 area will occur.
However, while XMR is expected to appreciate, it is likely to do so slower than BTC because of the bearish XMR/BTC chart.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
