Key Takeaways
Uniswap (UNI) appears to have exited its corrective phase after a prolonged downtrend, with signs of recovery forming in higher and lower time frames.
A completed descending wedge breakout combined with impulsive wave behavior suggests the potential beginning of a bullish reversal.
This analysis examines the long-term structure and short-term momentum to project UNI’s next moves.
The 4-hour chart illustrates UNI completing a complex ABCDE correction, culminating in a textbook descending wedge.
After bottoming near $5.55—just above the key support range of $5 — the price has broken out of the wedge to the upside.
The breakout follows a five-month corrective decline from its November 2024 peak of nearly $20, suggesting a trend reversal.
The recent breakout aligns with wave (e) ‘s end, marking the wedge’s final low. The subsequent impulse move appears to have completed three waves, peaking near $7.00.
A shallow correction followed, and we are now seeing new bullish signs.
Post-breakout, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has moved above 60, indicating renewed buyer strength.
Bulls must reclaim this level to sustain momentum. The price is currently consolidating just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $7.87.
A close above this resistance could open the door toward the 0.618 retracement level at $10.32. Failure to hold above $6.58 would suggest the breakout lacks conviction and may lead to a deeper retest of the $5.80–$5.20 zone.
The 1-hour chart presents a clean five-wave impulse, with wave (iii) completed and the price rallying into wave (v).
The shallow retracement in wave (iv), which found support at $6.58, adds confidence to the bullish structure, as strong demand prevented a deeper pullback.
The fifth wave now targets a potential extension to $7.86–$8.00, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and horizontal resistance.
The RSI has approached overbought territory, suggesting wave (v) may soon encounter exhaustion.
However, further upside can be expected immediately unless a bearish divergence appears.
A clean breakout above $7.86 would confirm bullish continuation and potentially drive the price toward $8.50–$9.00, aligning with previous structural highs.
If resistance holds at $7.86 and RSI cools off, a minor retracement toward $6.90 or $6.58 is likely, which would still be structurally healthy.
Invalidation of the current bullish count occurs only with a drop below $6.00, which would breach wave (iv) support and suggest premature termination of the impulse sequence.
Uniswap shows signs of a new impulsive phase, but confirmation lies in reclaiming $7.87. Momentum is favorable, but RSI suggests caution as wave (v) nears completion.
Immediate Resistance: $7.87 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
Key Resistance: $10.32 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
Major Target: $8.50–$9.00 (previous horizontal structure).
Immediate Support: $6.58 (wave IV support).
Critical Support: $5.20 (green zone accumulation base).
Short-Term Target for Wave (v): $7.86–$8.00.
Invalidation Zone: Below $6.00, undermining the bullish count.