Key Takeaways
Orca (ORCA) has witnessed an explosive rally of 270%, breaking out from a prolonged downtrend and surging to new local highs.
The breakout follows a long-term consolidation phase, marking a potential shift in market sentiment.
However, the price is retracing from its peak, sitting at 32% lower. The next steps depend on whether buyers can sustain momentum or if a deeper correction is due as it go overbought.
The daily chart shows ORCA completing a prolonged downtrend, forming a double-bottom structure at the key accumulation zone near $1.39.
Following months of bearish pressure, the recent breakout was fueled by a strong surge in volume, indicating renewed bullish interest.
The Elliott Wave count suggests that ORCA completed a corrective W-X-Y pattern, with the final Y wave concluding at the recent low.
The price then surged past previous resistance levels, breaking out of the descending wedge pattern that had contained price action for most of the downtrend.
The breakout led to a parabolic move, reaching $6 before facing resistance.
The relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered extreme overbought conditions, indicating that a pullback or consolidation is likely before further upside.
If ORCA holds above the breakout zone and consolidates constructively, it could set the stage for a continued rally.
However, failure to maintain support above $3.12 (0.236 Fib) may result in a deeper retracement towards $1.39, the previous accumulation area.
The lower time frame (1-hour chart) suggests that ORCA has entered a corrective phase following its parabolic rally.
This could be a consolidation ABCDE pattern before further upside or a new downtrend reverting the price as the parabolic rally ended.
In the first case, we will see a contracting triangle (a-b-c-d-e), suggesting a temporary consolidation before the next major move.
A breakout direction from this anticipated corrective structure will determine the next direction.
If the triangle resolves to the upside, the price could rally towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $5.06, with further potential to reach $5.92 (0.618 Fib extension).
A breakout beyond these levels would confirm another leg higher, targeting $6.50 and possibly $9.05 (previous cycle high).
On the downside, a breakdown from this pattern could see ORCA testing the 0.236 Fibonacci support at $3.12.
If this level fails, a deeper correction towards $1.39, where buyers previously stepped in, becomes more likely.
The RSI on this lower time frame has cooled off from extreme overbought conditions, suggesting that consolidation or a minor pullback is healthy before another push higher.
The coming sessions will determine whether ORCA resumes its rally or enters a deeper corrective phase.