Toncoin (TON) Price Breaks Down After UAE Denies Golden Visa Scheme

Last week, the TON Foundation announced a program that offers a 10-year United Arab Emirates (UAE) residency to applicants who stake $100,000 worth of Toncoin (TON) for at least three years, while paying a $35,000 processing fee.

The news attracted attention and caused the Toncoin price to surge.

However, in a joint statement on July 5, three different federal bodies of the UAE dismissed recent online rumors that suggested the UAE would grant golden visas or residency.

The TON price fell 10% after the debunking and now risks breaking down from a key support level. Let’s examine the price action and determine what lies ahead.

Toncoin Returns to Support

The weekly time frame technical analysis shows that TON has fallen inside a descending parallel channel since its all-time high in June 2024.

However, the downside momentum ended as the TON price bounced in March, creating a bullish engulfing candlestick (green icon).

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While the bounce was promising, TON’s rally faltered, leading to a retest of the $2.65 horizontal support area.

Technical indicators provide some hope, since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) create bullish divergences.

However, they have not materialized yet and could be invalidated with a breakdown from the $2.65 horizontal support area.

Also, the fact that TON trades below the channel’s midline does not bode well for the bullish hopes.

So, while the setup shows some promising signs, the weekly time frame analysis does not give a decisive TON price prediction.

Bullish TON Pattern

While the long-term outlook is undetermined, the daily chart gives a bullish TON price prediction for several reasons.

Firstly, the wave count shows a completed A-B-C structure (black) that ended with a low of $2.60 on June 22.

The ensuing bounce caused an upward movement, reclaiming the $2.80 minor support area.

This week, TON created a double bottom pattern and bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD.

While it is unclear if what follows is wave C or wave three, both scenarios will lead to significant upward movements.

The first breakout target for Toncoin is $4.45, giving both upward movements the same length.

The proposed movement will take the TON price to the long-term channel’s resistance trend line, creating more resistance confluence.

Toncoin’s UAE Visa Fallout

The Toncoin price had a roller-coaster week, which started with a rally caused by UAE golden visa rumors and ended with a drop caused by the debunking of those rumors.

Nevertheless, the price has created a short-term bullish pattern and could begin an upward movement soon.

If the pattern materializes, Toncoin could increase to $4.45 in the following weeks.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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