Toncoin (TON) Eyes Breakout as Consolidation Phase Nears Its Final Stages

Key Takeaways

• WXY correction appears completed on higher timeframes.
• Price is forming a bullish divergence on lower timeframes.
• The falling wedge structure suggests a breakout is near.

Toncoin (TON) has recently completed a prolonged corrective cycle and appears to be setting the foundation for a new impulsive wave.

Analysis of the 4-hour chart shows a textbook WXY correction ending in March, while the lower time frame reveals a smaller ABC corrective wave within a falling wedge pattern.

With the price holding above the 0.786 Fib level and bullish divergence forming, Toncoin could be nearing a significant reversal point.

TON Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows a clear WXY complex correction culminating in a final E-wave bottom on March 11.

Toncoin has been in a prolonged corrective phase since its Jun. 15  peak at $8.28.

This final leg dropped slightly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $2.35, a historically significant level of support.

A descending channel has encapsulated the entire bearish phase from December, whose breakout we’ve seen in mid-March. 

A pullback followed, nearly revering the price to its starting point, yet maintained a higher low of $2.80.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced from oversold territory and is trending upward, making a bullish divergence.

Volatility has remained low, typical of an end-phase correction, and aligns with the likely terminal point of the Y wave.

The overall structure signals that the macro correction may be complete. If $2.68 holds support, Toncoin may soon confirm a new bullish phase. 

However, a strong confirmation is still awaited via a breakout above key resistance.

TON Price Prediction

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, Toncoin appears to be forming an ABC corrective wave after completing a five-wave impulse to a high near $4.20 on April 1.

Wave (a) brought the price down to $2.84, wave (b) retraced into a lower high, and wave (c) potentially concluded as the price neared the wedge apex.

The descending wedge pattern is a classical bullish reversal setup. 

Its structure aligns with a possible end of wave (c), suggesting the correction is nearly over. RSI also showed higher lows while the price made a lower low, forming a slight bullish divergence.

This setup implies that Toncoin is preparing for another impulsive move, possibly a wave (iii) of a higher-degree cycle. 

The most probable breakout scenario would see TON moving rapidly toward the $3.88 and $4.12 resistance levels.

If the breakout is confirmed with a strong bullish candle and rising volume, this could mark the start of a larger bullish wave. 

The green zone between $4.50 and $4.73 may be tested next, aligning with the 0.5 Fib retracement from the macro high.

A breakdown below $2.68 would invalidate this bullish outlook and suggest the correction may extend.

Key Levels to Watch

• Major Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fib retracement).
• Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 retracement of recent decline).
• Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $4.122 with volume.
• Invalidation Level: Break below $2.68.
• Fractal Watch Zone: $4.70–$5.56 (target zone for wave (iii)).