Toncoin (TON) Price Climbs Above $7 as Momentum Meets Strong Resistance

Key Takeaways

• TON aims for $7.83, completing its current Elliott Wave.
• Ascending resistance is currently being interacted with
• Two scenarios ahead, but a bearish more likely

Toncoin (TON) has recovered from its descending wedge, rallying from $4.50 to $7.11 and forming a clear Elliott Wave structure.

Currently, the price interacts with rising wedge resistance, and the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that a short-term retracement may occur.

Will TON enter another corrective phase or continue to a higher high?

TON Price Analysis

The daily chart for TON illustrates a strong bullish recovery after completing a corrective phase within a descending wedge from an all-time high of $8.20 to a low of $4.50. 

After establishing horizontal support around $5, the price started gaining traction, and after retesting the level in mid-November, it picked up the pace. 

The price has formed a clear Elliott Wave structure. It is currently progressing through wave (iv) after likely completing wave (iii) near $7.11. Based on Fibonacci projections, wave (v) is targeted around $7.83.

A rising wedge resistance is now being interacted with, so we will shortly see if TON has enough strength to keep up the upward momentum or if it will enter its second corrective phase.

The daily chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) touches the overbought territory at 74%. 

The chart remains bullish, but a short-term correction could be anticipated for its next major move. 

Key Observations

Elliott Wave Progression: The impulsive structure shows TON advancing from wave (ii) support near $5.50, with wave (iii) peaking at $7.11, and wave (v) targeting $7.83.

Descending Wedge Breakout: The breakout from the descending wedge signals a trend reversal, with bullish momentum driving the current uptrend.

RSI Near Overbought: The RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting a possible brief consolidation or retracement before wave (v) completion.

This chart suggests strong bullish sentiment, but staying above the $6.50 support zone will be critical for maintaining momentum into wave (v).

TON Price Prediction 

Zooming into the hourly chart and examining the wave structure, we can see that today’s peak could mark the conclusion of wave 3.

This is especially hinted at by the ascending resistance interaction at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level—a typical stopping point for wave 3.

This is why we can primarily expect to see a rejection leading to a downturn and the formation of its wave (iv).

Alternatively, wave (iii) peaked on Nov. 23 at a high of $6.60, meaning that wave (iv) was the ascending channel seen since.

Its upward advancement since Dec. 3 is the ending wave (v) with more immediate room for the upside. The current interaction with the ascending resistance will provide further insight into the next dominant trend.                                         

Key Levels to Watch

Support Levels:

• $7.10 (1.618 Fibonacci): Immediate support, holding critical for maintaining bullish momentum.
• $6.68 (1.272 Fibonacci): A stronger support zone and potential wave (iv) retracement target.
• $6.36 (1.0 Fibonacci): Key support zone for preserving the broader uptrend.

Resistance Levels:

• $7.83 (2.272 Fibonacci): Projected wave (v) target and primary upside resistance.
• $8.30 (2.618 Fibonacci): Long-term resistance, marking potential extended bullish continuation.

A retracement to $6.68–$6.36 during wave (iv) would be healthy for the trend, providing a base for wave (v) to reach or exceed the $7.83 target.

Failure to hold above $6.36 could challenge the bullish structure, leading to a deeper correction.