Can Toncoin Move to New Highs? | Credit: Veronica Cestari
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Key Takeaways
The Toncoin (TON) price has reclaimed a long-term support area.
TON still trades under a long-term descending resistance trend line.
Can the TON price sustain the bounce and finally break out above it?
The TON decline since the all-time high in June almost caused a breakdown from long-term support in September. However, Toncoin regained its footing and reclaimed the support area, creating a bullish pattern in September.
If the bullish pattern materializes, the TON price can break out from the resistance trend line and finally begin a bullish trend reversal.
Let’s examine the price action and wave count in different time frames to determine the likelihood of this.
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TON Price Reclaims Support
The daily time frame TON chart shows that the price has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since June. While doing so, the price briefly fell below (black circle) the $5 horizontal support area, which has existed since April.
However, the price reclaimed it almost immediately afterward and returned to it this week, confirming it as support again. While this movement created a double bottom pattern, indicators do not support the pattern.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are increasing gradually but are below their bullish thresholds of 50 and 0, respectively. Also, no bullish divergence is developing.
Nevertheless, the shorter-term six-hour chart suggests a breakout will happen. This is because the price trades in a descending parallel channel, which is considered a corrective pattern.
The channel’s resistance trend line is very close to the long-term resistance from the daily time frame.
As for on-chain data, while Toncoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has fallen since August and is constant, the total Toncoin locked in Liquid Staking is increasing rapidly. The biggest Liquid Staking protocols in Toncoin are Tonstakers and Bemo, offering tsTON and stTON, respectively, with market capitalizations of roughly $200 and $60 million, respectively.
New Highs Likely?
The wave count gives a bullish Toncoin price prediction. The most likely count suggests that the price has started the fifth and final wave (white) of an upward movement that began in May 2022.
Wave four was an irregular, flat correction (black) and ended in August.
A possible target for the top of the TON upward movement is at $9.60. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates this target, which is nearly 100% above the current price.
The 3-day bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD support this possibility. Such divergences often occur at the bottom of corrections, as is true for TON.
Alternatively, falling below the $4.48 low will invalidate this bullish count and could trigger a decline to $3.80. This is doubtful at the moment.
TON Correction Over
The TON price has declined for nearly five months. However, it shows several bullish signs, indicating a breakout is likely soon. The short-term bullish pattern and Toncoin wave count both suggest the bottom is in.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
