Toncoin (TON) Price Ready to Rally After Bullish Pattern at Long-Term Support
Can Toncoin Move to New Highs? | Credit: Veronica Cestari
Key Takeaways
- The Toncoin (TON) price has reclaimed a long-term support area.
- TON still trades under a long-term descending resistance trend line.
- Can the TON price sustain the bounce and finally break out above it?
The TON decline since the all-time high in June almost caused a breakdown from long-term support in September. However, Toncoin regained its footing and reclaimed the support area, creating a bullish pattern in September.
If the bullish pattern materializes, the TON price can break out from the resistance trend line and finally begin a bullish trend reversal.
Let’s examine the price action and wave count in different time frames to determine the likelihood of this.
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TON Price Reclaims Support
The daily time frame TON chart shows that the price has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since June. While doing so, the price briefly fell below (black circle) the $5 horizontal support area, which has existed since April.
However, the price reclaimed it almost immediately afterward and returned to it this week, confirming it as support again. While this movement created a double bottom pattern, indicators do not support the pattern.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are increasing gradually but are below their bullish thresholds of 50 and 0, respectively. Also, no bullish divergence is developing.
Nevertheless, the shorter-term six-hour chart suggests a breakout will happen. This is because the price trades in a descending parallel channel, which is considered a corrective pattern.
The channel’s resistance trend line is very close to the long-term resistance from the daily time frame.
Further supporting the breakout, the price of TON bounced at the channel’s midline (white icon) and has nearly reached its resistance.
The more time the TON price spends in the channel’s upper portion, the more likely the breakout becomes.
It could reach the next long-term resistance at $8 if the price breaks out.
Toncoin News
Despite the price decline, Toncoin news is mostly positive.
Toncoin’s premier annual event , “The Gateway,” was held between Nov. 1 and 2. It featured several new announcements, such as the launch of Society DAO and a $1.25 million Memecoin competition.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will soon launch ten new features for Mini Apps, including full-screen mode and media sharing.
Finally, the TON Teleport BTC testnet is ready. This decentralized bridge allows Bitcoin (BTC) holders to engage with TON’s DeFi projects.
As for on-chain data, while Toncoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has fallen since August and is constant, the total Toncoin locked in Liquid Staking is increasing rapidly. The biggest Liquid Staking protocols in Toncoin are Tonstakers and Bemo, offering tsTON and stTON, respectively, with market capitalizations of roughly $200 and $60 million, respectively.
New Highs Likely?
The wave count gives a bullish Toncoin price prediction. The most likely count suggests that the price has started the fifth and final wave (white) of an upward movement that began in May 2022.
Wave four was an irregular, flat correction (black) and ended in August.
A possible target for the top of the TON upward movement is at $9.60. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates this target, which is nearly 100% above the current price.
The 3-day bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD support this possibility. Such divergences often occur at the bottom of corrections, as is true for TON.
Alternatively, falling below the $4.48 low will invalidate this bullish count and could trigger a decline to $3.80. This is doubtful at the moment.
TON Correction Over
The TON price has declined for nearly five months. However, it shows several bullish signs, indicating a breakout is likely soon. The short-term bullish pattern and Toncoin wave count both suggest the bottom is in.
If a breakout happens, the TON price can reach the next resistance at $8 but could go as far as $9.60, reaching a new all-time high.
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