Solana (SOL) Price Holds Above $200 but Long-Term Weakness Persists

Key Takeaways

• Solana (SOL) has fallen over 30% since its all-time high.
• There is considerable weakness in long-term indicators.
• Has Solana reached the top of its bullish market cycle?

After pacing the crypto market between June 2023 and March 2024, the SOL price has slowed down its ascent.

Despite its all-time high of $295.31 in January 2025, SOL barely surpassed the previous cycle’s peak before falling sharply.

While the long-term weakness is evident, Solana has shown strength by defending the $200 support level.

With that in mind, let’s analyze a few potential counts to see what the rest of the year holds.

Solana Shows Weakness

The weekly SOL chart shows considerable long-term weakness. Firstly, the price has completed a five-wave upward movement starting at the beginning of 2023.

If the count is accurate, the five-wave increase may have ended with an all-time high of $295.83 in January 2025.

Despite the increase, SOL failed to close above the previous all-time high resistance of $250. Rather, it created a long upper wick (black icon). The move ended at a confluence of Fibonacci levels suitable for a high.

More specifically, it gave wave five the same length as waves one and three combined (white) and tagged the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black).

Next, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green).

The fact that the divergences transpire in the weekly time frame makes it more likely that it will lead to the cycle high.

However, the SOL price action is more unclear. While SOL failed to close above the $250 resistance area, it has held above the $200 horizontal support, creating a range between the two.

The resolution of the range will be critical in confirming if the future trend is bullish or bearish.

Is the Cycle Top In?

Well-known crypto trader Nik suggests that the top is not in because after reaching its all-time high, the SOL price has traded above $200 for nearly a year.

Historically, cycle tops have been more akin to blow-off tops rather than slow, gradual distribution that eventually lowers prices.

If the cycle top is not in place, it means that the Solana price is still in wave four of the five-wave upward movement. Wave four will likely be an irregular flat correction contained inside an elongated ascending parallel channel.

In this scenario, the SOL price will fall to the channel’s support trend line at $150 before eventually breaking out toward a new all-time high.

This scenario is more unusual than the bearish one since wave four would take too long relative to wave three.

Furthermore, the SOL price would break below the long-term $200 horizontal support area and reach a local bottom. Finally, it would go against the bearish divergences in the weekly RSI and MACD.

As a result, while this alternative wave count is still valid, the SOL price has more likely reached its market cycle top and will gradually descend for the rest of the year.

Bearish Solana Prediction

The SOL price has fallen considerably since its all-time high and shows several signs that align with a market cycle top.

A weekly close below $200 will go a long way in confirming that the bear market has started.