Key Takeaways
Pengu is currently at a critical juncture, displaying signs of potential reversal after an extended downtrend.
The 4-hour chart suggests completing a five-wave decline, while the 1-hour chart presents a possible bullish recovery setup.
The interplay between descending resistance, Fibonacci levels, and RSI momentum will determine the next price trajectory.
The 4-hour chart shows Pengu has been in a sustained downtrend after completing a five-wave Elliott Wave structure, which peaked at $0.046 on Jan. 6.
Since then, the price has followed a descending wedge pattern, often a precursor to a reversal.
The decline appears to have reached its final leg, as the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of the wedge.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been consistently oversold, but a slight bullish divergence is forming.
This divergence and decreasing selling volume suggest that bearish momentum is weakening.
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Given the sharp decline, a relief rally could be imminent. However, for a confirmed bullish shift, the price needs to decisively breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary and the key resistance level at $0.00945.
Until then, the downtrend remains intact, and lower supports should be closely monitored.
The 1-hour chart provides a more detailed outlook on the ongoing price movements. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that Pengu is in the final stages of a five-wave downward sequence, with wave (v) possibly marking the bottom.
Completing this pattern typically leads to either a corrective ABC structure or the beginning of a new upward impulse wave.
A bounce from the $0.00328 support level aligns with a potential reversal, as suggested by the RSI, which has exited the oversold zone. If the price breaks above minor resistance at $0.0058, a move towards $0.00945 is likely.
This level represents a confluence of previous support-turned-resistance and Fibonacci retracement zones.
However, if the price fails to break above $0.0058, another retest of the $0.00328 support is possible before a more decisive move.
A deeper breakdown below $0.0030 would invalidate the bullish reversal scenario, signaling continued weakness.