Friday, April 18, could mark a crucial moment for Official Trump (TRUMP), the memecoin launched by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The project will unlock 40 million tokens on that day, worth $328 million. This also represents 20% of its total circulating supply. In anticipation of the event, TRUMP’s price has declined by 30% over the past month.
This has raised concerns about further downside pressure once the unlock occurs. In this analysis, CCN examines how the upcoming TRUMP token unlocks could impact the memecoin’s price — and what several key technical indicators suggest about its short-term potential.
The upcoming TRUMP token unlock is one of the largest this month. With a market cap of $1.62 billion, the event is likely to exert sell pressure on the memecoin as only 20% of its total supply is in circulation.
For those unfamiliar, token unlocks release previously locked or vested tokens into circulation. Generally, a large influx of tokens increases selling pressure, especially in weak demand.
The April 18 unlock could deliver a significant supply shock in TRUMP’s case. Given the memecoin’s relatively small float, this event will likely weigh heavily on its short-term price action.
Thus, if buying volume fails to absorb the incoming supply, TRUMP’s price could face an extended correction — potentially deeper than its existing 90% drawdown from the all-time high.
From an on-chain perspective, Dune data shows that TRUMP currently has 637,235 holders — a notable decline from the 817,621 addresses recorded shortly after its launch on Jan. 19.
Also, fewer than 13,000 holders have TRUMP holdings valued at $1,000 or more. With the upcoming token unlock event, it is uncertain whether this number will rise, especially given the lackluster demand in recent weeks.
Amid this decline, data from Santiment shows that social dominance around the TRUMP memecoin has risen to 0.19%. Social dominance measures how much social media discussion is focused on a specific asset relative to others.
However, the rise in social dominance is not necessarily a bullish sign. Considering the drop in TRUMP’s price, the rising reading indicates a bearish divergence.
Should this remain the same, then the TRUMP token unlock could hurt the memecoin’s market value.
TRUMP Price Analysis: Bigger Crash Possible
On the technical side of things, the daily chart shows that TRUMP is flirting with $8.06, near the upper trendline of the descending triangle.
Since it has yet to break above the trendline, TRUMP is likely to remain stuck in the bearish pattern. In addition, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reading is still negative, indicating bearish momentum.
Similar to the sign shown by the AO, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) is below the zero line, suggesting that bears are in control. Should this remain the same, TRUMP’s price might drop below $7 ahead of the $328 million token unlock.
On the flip side, this trend might change if TRUMP bulls successfully push the price above the overhead resistance. In that scenario, the memecoin’s value could rise toward $17.05 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
