TRUMP Memecoin Cracks Under Pressure: 30% Drop Could Worsen With $328M Supply Shock

Key Takeaways

• On April 18, 40 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked, representing 20% of the circulating supply.
• TRUMP has already declined 30%, signaling that traders are pricing in the potential supply shock.
• Fewer than 13,000 wallets hold over $1,000 worth of TRUMP, suggesting waning holder confidence.
• TRUMP trades near the top of a descending triangle, with AO and BBP confirming bearish momentum.
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Friday, April 18, could mark a crucial moment for Official Trump (TRUMP), the memecoin launched by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The project will unlock 40 million tokens on that day, worth $328 million. This also represents 20% of its total circulating supply. In anticipation of the event, TRUMP’s price has declined by 30% over the past month.

This has raised concerns about further downside pressure once the unlock occurs. In this analysis, CCN examines how the upcoming TRUMP token unlocks could impact the memecoin’s price — and what several key technical indicators suggest about its short-term potential.

TRUMP Unlock Threatens Memecoin’s Stability

The upcoming TRUMP token unlock is one of the largest this month. With a market cap of $1.62 billion, the event is likely to exert sell pressure on the memecoin as only 20% of its total supply is in circulation.

For those unfamiliar, token unlocks release previously locked or vested tokens into circulation. Generally, a large influx of tokens increases selling pressure, especially in weak demand.

The April 18 unlock could deliver a significant supply shock in TRUMP’s case. Given the memecoin’s relatively small float, this event will likely weigh heavily on its short-term price action.

Thus, if buying volume fails to absorb the incoming supply, TRUMP’s price could face an extended correction — potentially deeper than its existing 90% drawdown from the all-time high.

Bearish Divergence Appears

From an on-chain perspective, Dune data shows that TRUMP currently has 637,235 holders — a notable decline from the 817,621 addresses recorded shortly after its launch on Jan. 19.

Also, fewer than 13,000 holders have TRUMP holdings valued at $1,000 or more. With the upcoming token unlock event, it is uncertain whether this number will rise, especially given the lackluster demand in recent weeks.

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Amid this decline, data from Santiment shows that social dominance around the TRUMP memecoin has risen to 0.19%. Social dominance measures how much social media discussion is focused on a specific asset relative to others.

However, the rise in social dominance is not necessarily a bullish sign. Considering the drop in TRUMP’s price, the rising reading indicates a bearish divergence.

Should this remain the same, then the TRUMP token unlock could hurt the memecoin’s market value.

TRUMP Price Analysis: Bigger Crash Possible

On the technical side of things, the daily chart shows that TRUMP is flirting with $8.06, near the upper trendline of the descending triangle.

Since it has yet to break above the trendline, TRUMP is likely to remain stuck in the bearish pattern. In addition, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reading is still negative, indicating bearish momentum.

Similar to the sign shown by the AO, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) is below the zero line, suggesting that bears are in control. Should this remain the same, TRUMP’s price might drop below $7 ahead of the $328 million token unlock.

On the flip side, this trend might change if TRUMP bulls successfully push the price above the overhead resistance. In that scenario, the memecoin’s value could rise toward $17.05 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.