Bitcoin Price Patterns During US Election Week: What History Shows

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. presidential election is today, on Nov. 5.
• Bitcoin (BTC) declined 7% in the past seven days.
• How has Bitcoin fared in the two previous elections?

The U.S. presidential election will be held today, on Nov. 5. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who shows a stronger pro-crypto stance, leads in betting markets, while polls reveal an uncertain outcome.

While the winner is yet to be determined, several interesting questions can be answered, such as how Bitcoin fared in previous election weeks and, more importantly, how it performed in the year after.

Let’s analyze the sentiment surrounding the current election alongside the Bitcoin price action in 2016 and 2020 and determine what will happen after today’s result.

Previous Election History

There has been a lot of discussion surrounding Bitcoin and its movement during the election years.

CryptoMichNL stated  that there is always volatility in the days before elections. The Federal Reserve meeting is on Thursday, Nov. 7, which adds to it since the BTC price often falls before the meeting.

Jason Pizzino noted that every  President  has presided over a new all-time high in the stock market, which is likely to spill over to crypto.

However, on-chain data shows there is a significant number of Bitcoin put options  at $65,000, expiring one day after the election. This could be investors hedging on a possible Kamala Harris win.

While there is some concern regarding a Harris win, since she is seen as the more anti-crypto candidate, Criptopaul believes  that capital will flow into crypto regardless.

A potential reason could be that the market loves certainty, so whichever candidate wins will react positively.Cubantobacco noted  that the average six-month return after the election is 470% and has never been below 130%.

Donald Trump’s victory  in 2016 highlighted this trend. Interestingly, October, November, and December have been bullish each election year. 

The price action shows that Bitcoin has set a floor  each election week that has never been touched again, the most recent being $14,902 in November 2020.

MJ explain s that the reason for this is that the U.S. government does everything in its power to strengthen the economy with rate cuts and more money in circulation. This was the case in 2024, with the first rate cut in September.

The other reason is that election years have coincided with Bitcoin halvings, increasing scarcity. This is especially evident this year with institutional buys and ETFs.

Finally, Kaleo noted that the current election looks far more consequential than the previous ones because the crypto market cap is larger  than the previous ones, making it impossible to ignore.

So, sentiment surrounding the Bitcoin price during and especially post-election could not be more bullish.

2016 U.S. Election

During the 2016 U.S. election week, the BTC price consolidated under the previous all-time high horizontal resistance area. The increase was initially gradual but accelerated once the Bitcoin price broke out from the area, which was validated as support in March 2017 (white icon).

After election week, the Bitcoin price increased by 2,560% in 392 days before correcting. The parabolic increase after the election was much larger than that from the bottom leading up to the election week.

Technical indicators were also bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) increased above 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bullish cross in positive territory.

2020 U.S. Election

In the 2020 U.S. election week, the Bitcoin price created a bullish candlestick (white). The moment marked the acceleration of the price movement toward new highs since BTC reached a new all-time high next month.

After the election, BTC increased by 373% in the next 161 days before a major correction occurred. The Bitcoin price increased more after the election week than from the absolute cycle low to the election week.

Technical indicators were positive. The RSI had just increased above 50 while the MACD made a bullish cross. The Bitcoin price reached the top after the RSI generated a bearish divergence (green).

The movement after the 2020 election week was roughly eight times weaker than that after 2016.

2024 U.S. Election

The current Bitcoin price action is different since the price already exceeded the previous all-time high. After deviating below that horizontal area (black circle), Bitcoin validated it as support. It has increased since, breaking out from a descending resistance trend line.

Indicator readings are similar since the MACD has made a bullish cross in positive territory (white icon) while the RSI is above 50.

Interestingly, the Bitcoin price has increased by 340% since the absolute low, which aligns with both previous cycles. However, as noted before, there have been diminishing returns since the 2020 cycle provided much smaller returns.

With that in mind, even if we assume that the BTC price will increase by half what it did in 2020, this still gives a target of $120,000. Using the average length of the two previous cycles suggests that BTC will reach a high in August 2025.

This also aligns with the long-term wave count, which predicts a high between $107,150 and $113,300 in July 2025 if wave five extends.

Bullish 2025

The Bitcoin price has increased considerably after each previous election week. More interestingly, the price never revisited the lows set during election week.

While the current cycle differs from the previous two, all points lead towards an overwhelmingly positive end to 2024 and even more bullish 2025.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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