The KAS price has trended downward since its all-time high in Jule 2024. A failed rally created a lower high in December, after which the downward movement accelerated.
Nevertheless, some positive Kaspa news hit this week, making KAS the biggest gainer in the crypto market. CoinMarketCap added the crypto to its “Made in America” category. This could have helped the increase, fueling speculation that KAS can be added to the strategic crypto reserve.
The KAS price also trades close to the conclusion of a bullish pattern. Will it break out, or will the long-term decline continue? Let’s find out.
The weekly time frame chart shows that KAS broke down from the $0.102 horizontal support area in the first week of February and validated it as resistance next week (red icon).
Before the breakdown, the area had provided support for 455 days. So, the close below it indicated that the bullish trend has ended, paving the way for a new, bearish one.
On March 12, the KAS price decrease culminated with a new yearly low of $0.0055, a drop of over 70% since the all-time high of $0.207. The next closest support area is $0.0045-$0.0050, created by a horizontal and Fibonacci support level.
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50 while the MACD is below 0, both signs of a bearish trend.
Therefore, the long-term readings suggest the KAS price will eventually reach the support area.
Can KAS Bounce?
The daily time frame chart offers a more bullish Kaspa prediction. This is because Kaspa is trading inside a descending wedge, which is considered a bullish pattern. The price is approaching the end of the pattern, so a decisive movement will likely occur soon.
Technical indicators are leaning bullish. The MACD has generated a bullish divergence, something often present before bullish trend reversals. However, the RSI has not done the same.
If a breakout happens, the closest resistance area will be at $0.105, aligning with the long-term horizontal level.
The wave count shows a completed five-wave decline inside the wedge, another sign that a breakout is overdue. The five-wave KAS price decline is likely part of a larger A-B-C correction (red), ongoing since the all-time high.
However, the fact that waves A and C do not have a common ratio raises some doubt about whether this is the correct count.
Therefore, the weekly and daily time frames do not align, since the former is bearish while the latter is bullish. Combining them, the most likely future outlook is a KAS price breakout toward $0.105 followed by another downward movement to $0.0045-$0.0050.
Breakout Before New Lows
The long-term KAS trend is bearish because of a breakdown from the $0.0105 horizontal support area. Since the daily time frame predicts a breakout, the KAS price could initiate a relief rally first before eventually falling to new lows.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
