The weekly time frame chart shows that ADA created its first lower high this cycle (red icons). The price reached its cycle high of $1.32 in December 2024 before reaching a lower high of $1.19 in February 2025.
Cardano’s second high was especially worrisome since it was followed by a bearish candlestick next week.
The ADA price now trades inside a $0.75 horizontal area, a critical level that acted as resistance for over two years.
The ADA trend could be determined by whether ADA bounces or breaks down.
Technical indicators lean bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is slightly below 50, while the MACD has made a bearish cross.
Therefore, the weekly ADA chart leans bearish, suggesting that a breakdown is more likely than a bounce.
Failed ADA Price Breakout
The daily time frame shows that ADA rallied on March 3, spurred by the crypto reserve announcement. Bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD (orange) also preceded the upward movement.
However, while ADA initially broke out from a descending resistance trend line, it was rejected by the $1.15 horizontal resistance area. This created a deviation and a lower high.
The ADA price has fallen since, invalidating the previous breakout. The wave count suggests ADA is in wave C of an A-B-C structure that began after the cycle high. Giving waves A and C the same length leads to a low of $0.38.
Since this outline would lead to a breakdown from the $0.75 horizontal support area, it would suggest the ADA trend is bearish.
So, while a bounce could occur afterward, it will not invalidate the long-term bearish outlook.
On the other hand, breaking out from the resistance trend line and the $1.15 area will invalidate the bearish ADA prediction, possibly leading to new highs. This currently seems unlikely.
Breakdown Ahead
The Cardano price has lost all of its gains resulting from the crypto reserve announcement on March 3.
Additionally, ADA failed to maintain its breakout and risks falling below a long-term horizontal support area. If this happens, it will confirm the long-term trend is bearish.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
