HYPE has fallen 17% from its year-to-date high of $43.88. Technical indicators now signal sustained bearish momentum and fading trader demand.
Social dominance has collapsed since April 2, while futures open interest slipped 3% over the past day.
HYPE is holding just above key support at $36.38 — a daily close below this level could trigger a further decline toward $30.33.
Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE has dropped 17% since hitting a year-to-date high of $43.88 on March 18.
The token’s surge to its yearly peak was driven by a sharp rise in user activity on the Hyperliquid DEX following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
The geopolitical tensions have driven a wave of traders to the platform’s HIP-3 feature, which enables trading of tokenized real-world assets, including commodities. This surge in activity pushed demand for HYPE sharply higher through the first half of March.
However, fading trader demand and weakening on-chain signals now raise the prospect of a HYPE price decline toward $30.
On-Chain Growth Fails to Lift HYPE
Hyperliquid continues to thrive even as its token struggles. Real-world asset (RWA) trading on the DEX has surpassed $2.3 billion in open interest, the project announced on X on Monday.
Yet the sustained growth in on-chain activity has done little to boost HYPE’s value over the past few weeks. Technical indicators signal a decline in demand that may push prices lower.
On the daily chart, readings from HYPE’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) show that it has recorded a bearish crossover since the token’s price began to plunge.
The MACD indicator identifies trends and momentum in an asset’s price movement. It helps traders spot potential buy or sell signals through crossovers between the MACD and signal lines.
A bearish crossover occurs when the MACD line (blue) dips below the signal line (orange), indicating a weakening in bullish momentum and a shift toward downward price pressure.
At press time, HYPE’s MACD line sits at 0.15, well below the signal line at 0.60, a gap that reflects the depth of the ongoing bearish momentum. Also, the histogram has been printing successive red bars since late March, confirming that selling pressure is being sustained.
Furthermore, HYPE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the 50 neutral level and has remained flat over the past two sessions. This is a signal that traders are largely sitting on their hands. At press time, this momentum indicator stands at 48.97.
The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges from 0 to 100. Values above 70 indicating the asset is overbought and due for a price decline. Conversely, values below 30 indicate the asset is oversold and due for a rebound.
At 48.97 and flattening, HYPE’s RSI suggests bullish momentum has stalled. If the RSI fails to cross back above 50 and instead falls further from current levels, it would confirm that bears are in control of near-term price action.
HYPE Social Mentions Are Down
Social activity around HYPE has also dropped off, reducing the retail noise that typically supports price. Per Santiment, the altcoin’s social dominance has plummeted by 87% since April 2.
An asset’s social dominance tracks how often it is mentioned across social platforms, forums, and news outlets relative to the rest of the market. When this metric climbs, it signals heightened retail attention and speculative interest.
On the other hand, when it falls alongside price as it has here, it means the asset is losing attention and engagement from retail participants. As mentions drop across social platforms, fewer new entrants enter the market, resulting in less demand-side pressure on HYPE.
In addition, HYPE’s future open interest has fallen 3% in the past day, tracking the token’s price dip. Per Coinglass, this sits at $1.53 billion at press time.
An asset’s open interest is the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have yet to be settled.
When it declines during a period of poor price performance, it signals waning trader confidence and suggests they are unwinding their positions.
$36.38 Is the Line in the Sand for HYPE Bulls
At press time, HYPE trades at $36.47, holding slightly above the key support floor formed at $36.38. If demand leans further, a daily close below this level is likely. This could result in a further dip toward $30.33, unless new buying pressure re-emerges.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
