Key Takeaways
Hedera (HBAR) has fallen since its July cycle high.
The price showed several bullish signs by reclaiming a critical support level, but the failure to sustain the breakout raises doubts about the future trend.
Whether HBAR reclaims $0.235 or is rejected again will determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish.
Let’s examine some charts and see which future outlook is most likely.
Since July 27, when it hit a high of $0.305, Hedera’s price has fallen under a diagonal resistance trend line.
The downward movement caused a breakdown from the $0.235 horizontal support area, leading to a low of $0.210 on Sept. 24.
However, the HBAR price regained its footing and reclaimed horizontal and diagonal resistance next week.
So, Hedera broke out from a diagonal and a horizontal resistance, a strong sign that its trend is bullish. However, this has not been the case so far.
On the contrary, HBAR again broke down from the $0.235 area this week, a decisive sign that the area failed to provide support.
Today, the HBAR price has bounced at the diagonal resistance, the final support level that could initiate a reversal.
Momentum indicators give similarly mixed signs, failing to confirm the trend’s direction.

While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) broke out from their diagonal resistances, they have fallen since.
The RSI is below 50, and the MACD is negative. These mixed signs cast doubt whether the Hedera prediction is bullish or bearish.
As long as Hedera trades above its previous diagonal resistance, there is hope that it will begin a bullish trend reversal.
To do so, the price has to reclaim $0.235 first.
The wave count is unclear. While Hedera has completed a five-wave upward movement since June (green), the shape of the correction is unclear.
The downward movement is likely to be corrective since HBAR trades inside a descending parallel channel.
However, the exact shape of the correction remains uncertain.
The most likely is a complex W-X-Y-X-Z correction (red), in which the price completed wave Z this week.

If so, the HBAR price will break out from the channel and move to new highs.
The alternative to this correction is a W-X-Y one (black_, where the price is in wave Y.
If this correction transpires, the HBAR price will fall to a low of $0.163 before the decline ends.
In both cases, HBAR will reach new highs this cycle.
The long-term chart shows that Hedera’s price has decreased under a diagonal resistance since 2021.
The resistance has existed for 1,470 days, causing numerous rejections, the most recent in July (red icon).

The resistance has existed for almost five years, so a breakout above it could trigger a rapid and significant increase.
Once the HBAR price breaks it, it will only face the $0.40 level on its way to a new all-time high.
The Hedera price failed to sustain its breakout above a horizontal resistance level, but still trades above its main diagonal resistance.
While the short-term trend is unclear, the long-term Hedera prediction remains bullish.
Whether the price reclaimed $0.235 will determine the short-term trend’s direction.