Key Takeaways
HBAR rallied between June and July, reaching a high of $0.305 on July 27.
However, it has fallen considerably since, breaking down from a key support level in August.
Despite the breakdown, this week’s movement has created optimism for the bulls, raising hopes of a bullish trend reversal.
With HBAR trading at key resistance, the key question is: Will the price invalidate the previous breakdown by reclaiming these levels, or will it get rejected and continue its downward trend?
Let’s find out.
Hedera’s price has declined under a descending resistance trend line since July 27.
After three rejections (red icons), HBAR broke down from the $0.235 horizontal area, falling to a low of $0.210.
The breakdown was quite mild, considering how long the Hedera price consolidated below the resistance and the height from which it fell.
Because there was no strong downward movement after the breakdown, the HBAR price bounced and is currently attempting to reclaim the confluence of resistances at $0.235.
Even though Hedera’s price has yet to break out from these resistances, momentum indicators suggest it will do so soon.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have given strong indicators that an upward movement is likely.

Both indicators broke out from their resistance trend lines and gave bullish signals: The RSI moved above 50 while the MACD made a bullish cross.
Hence, the daily time frame analysis gives a bullish HBAR prediction, in which a breakout from the resistance is likely.
If that happens, the next closest resistance area will be at $0.278.
The wave count confirms that the bottom is in and the HBAR price has started a new upward movement.
It shows that Hedera has completed a W-X-Y correction, where waves W and Y had nearly the same length.
If the count is accurate, Hedera has started an upward movement that will take it to a new cycle high.

As outlined before, the primary resistance is at $0.275, and the reaction of the HBAR will be critical to determine what happens next.
However, if the count transpires as expected, the HBAR price will reach a new cycle high of $0.363, hitting the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement.
The Hedera, XLM, and XRP prices have moved in tandem for more than a year. XLM (purple) led, followed by HBAR (purple) and XRP (black).
However, XRP was the first to reach a new high in 2025, while XLM and HBAR have not yet done the same.

Nevertheless, the technical analysis for XRP and XLM is bullish, since both cryptos have completed their corrective structure and have started upward movements.
Hence, the HBAR price will do the same if the fractal that has been valid for a year continues.
The Hedera price is breaking out from a confluence of resistances today, aiming to confirm the bullish trend reversal.
Once it does, the first obstacle will be at $0.275, but the price can move to a new cycle high once it clears it.