Key Takeaways
After a massive surge in June and a peak at $0.299 in mid-July, Hedera (HBAR) momentum has slowed, and technical signals have turned negative.
The price recently printed a bearish head-and-shoulders setup, hinting at the risk of more downside in the short term.
With weakening momentum, HBAR is primed for a short-term pullback before bulls can take over again.
Hedera’s June rally culminated with a high of $0.299 on July 18.
Although the token briefly reached a higher high a week later, the momentum faded quickly.
The bearish engulfing candlestick and lower high on Aug. 14 confirmed that bulls had lost the upper hand.
In addition to the decline, the HBAR price created a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, from which a breakdown is likely.
The HBAR price bounced (green icon) on Aug. 22 but failed to sustain the rally, and risks breaking down from the neckline today.

If that happens, the maximum decline would be a 30% drop to $0.160, but a shallower retracement could take the price to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $0.194.
Momentum readings back up the bearish case: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to decline.
In conclusion, the daily technical analysis gives a bearish Hedera prediction, suggesting the price will soon break down from its pattern.
The wave analysis adds another bearish layer to the outlook, suggesting that the Hedera price is in the final portion of its correction.
The HBAR price completed a five-wave upward movement on July 27 and has started a corrective structure afterward.
The most likely structure suggests HBAR is in wave Y of a W-X-Y correction

If wave C mirrors wave A in length, the HBAR price could find support near $0.198, lining up with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
However, if wave C extends to 1.61 times wave A, HBAR might reach a low of $0.150, reaching long-term support.
The second target is also closer to the projected length of the bearish Hedera pattern.
This makes a short-term breakdown the most likely scenario before any larger trend resumes.
On the higher time frame, Hedera’s structure looks more optimistic.
The HBAR price action hints at a potential 1-2/1-2 wave setup (green and black).
If the pattern plays out, it will start a parabolic explosion once the short-term decline is over.

A confirmed breakout above the $0.265 resistance zone would be the first major signal that bulls are back in control.
Such a move would also pierce the multi-year descending resistance trendline that has capped HBAR since its all-time high.
If broken, that could open the door to fresh record highs in 2025.
In the short term, HBAR remains vulnerable, with likely targets between $0.198 and $0.150.
Yet, the long-term structure still supports a bullish case, suggesting Hedera is setting up for a strong rally once this correction ends.
A breakout over $0.265 could trigger the next leg higher, potentially driving the token into uncharted territory with a new all-time high in 2025.