How 250,000 ETH Was Lost Forever: Rain Lõhmus’s Forgotten Fortune.
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Key Takeaways
Ethereum (ETH) nearly reached a new all-time high last week.
The ETH price shows weakness in short-term time frames.
Ethereum risks losing its dominance against Bitcoin (BTC).
Ethereum has been flirting with record highs, coming within a whisker of setting a new all-time high last week.
Despite the momentum, the market has started showing cracks, raising questions about the sustainability of its rally.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the Ethereum price action and determine why it is falling and if it will continue.
Ethereum Price Forecast
Ethereum has been on a tear since April 7, increasing almost parabolically for nearly four months.
The high point of the upward movement was last week, when the price of ETH reached a high of $4,793, only incrementally below the all-time high of $4,869.
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Moreover, the RSI has generated a bearish divergence, adding to the possibility of further downside.
If Ethereum is in wave four, it is likely completing a fourth wave pullback.
Since wave two was brief and reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support, a lengthier wave four that ends at either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels is likely.
So, the wave count explains why the Ethereum price is currently falling and suggests new lows await.
ETH Dominance Weakens
The two other charts that present a bearish Ethereum thesis are the ETH to BTC and ETH dominance charts.
The ETH to BTC chart shows that the price has completed wave three in a five-wave upward movement and is now correcting.
Bearish divergences preceded the rally and suggested that Ethereum’s price would head lower, toward the ₿0.030 – ₿0.032 horizontal and Fibonacci support.
The Ethereum dominance chart shows the same five-wave structure where ETH has completed wave three.
So, the ETH to BTC and ETH dominance charts are almost identical to the daily USDT one.
ETH Dominance Daily Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
The combination of all these readings suggests that ETH will likely undergo a deep correction, underperforming Bitcoin and losing dominance relative to the rest of the market.
Ethereum’s Bearish August
Ethereum’s rally has hit a roadblock, with the RSI and wave count pointing toward a cooling-off period.
While the long-term structure still favors eventual new highs, the short-term outlook suggests a deeper pullback may be possible.
Ethereum’s grip on the market could weaken during the downturn, causing it to lose ground against Bitcoin.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
