Ethereum (ETH) Prints First Monthly Gain in 2025, but Bearish Divergence Clouds Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum is set to close May with a positive return for the first time in 2025, after a nearly 50% price surge this month.
- A bearish divergence has appeared with the MACD dropping into negative territory, indicating a possible short-term drop.
- Large ETH inflows to exchanges (worth over $280 million) hint at selling pressure that could push the price lower.
For the first time in 2025, Ethereum (ETH) will close the month in the green.
The last time this happened was back in November 2024, when renewed crypto enthusiasm followed Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory.
Over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s price has surged nearly 50%, reaching a local high of $2,729 before experiencing a slight pullback.
But as June approaches, a bearish divergence has emerged on the charts. So, what does this divergence mean for ETH’s price action in the short term? Let’s break it down.
Ethereum Faces Bearish Pressure
Recently, CCN observed how ETH had formed a bull flag, indicating that the cryptocurrency could climb to $3,000.
However, that prediction might have been delayed according to the current Ethereum price action.
Ethereum’s price has been consolidating between $2,474 and $2,688 within the last few days.
Amid this movement, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has dropped into the negative region.
Adding to the caution, Ethereum’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have just flashed a bearish crossover.
This crossover occurs when the longer-term EMA moves above the shorter one.
As of now, the 26 EMA (orange) has overtaken the 12 EMA (blue), suggesting that ETH may struggle to stage a quick rebound.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that gauges buying and selling pressure, has also flipped bearish.
A rising CMF indicates accumulation, but the reading now turning downward suggests that buying pressure around ETH is fading.
If this trend continues and demand remains weak, Ethereum’s price could be at risk of breaking below its key support zone.
More Coins Flow Into Exchanges
Another indicator that supports this outlook is the Exchange Netflow Volume. This metric tracks the amount of coins moving in and out of centralized exchanges.
When inflows outweigh outflows, it signals that holders are preparing to sell, putting downward pressure on the price. However, lower inflows typically suggest confidence and a reluctance to sell.
According to data from Glassnode, 106,972 ETH, worth over $280 million, was transferred to exchanges on Thursday, May 29.
If this trend continues, Ethereum could face an additional price dip in the short term.
ETH Price Analysis: Pullback Coming
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is currently trading within an ascending channel—a structure that typically signals bullish continuation.
However, a closer look at the Money Flow Index (MFI) reveals a bearish divergence.
The MFI has dropped below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to outweigh buying demand.
The MFI tracks the flow of capital into and out of the asset. Rising values indicate increased buying pressure, while a decline signals that bears may be gaining control.
If this bearish momentum continues, ETH could break below the channel support at $2,522. A confirmed breakdown at that level might trigger a further decline toward $2,351 in the short term.
On the other hand, if the MFI rebounds and buying volume returns, Ethereum could regain bullish traction. A bounce above $2,739 would be the first hurdle, and in a highly bullish scenario, ETH could push toward the psychological $3,000 level.
