DOGE trades below realized price with weak sentiment and falling OI | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Dogecoin fell as liquidity shifted into newer Trump-related memecoins and hype faded.
Open Interest dropped, indicating that traders had lost their leverage-driven appetite.
DOGE is below its realized price and stuck in a downtrend, so a rally needs fresh demand.
The November 2024 U.S. election held tremendous promise for the market, as Donald Trump promised to make the nation the global crypto capital.
As a result, crypto prices, including Dogecoin (DOGE), soared ahead of January 2025. What made it even more interesting is the introduction of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), headed by Elon Musk.
Yet, amid all this hype, Dogecoin’s price failed to meet expectations. Here is why, and what could be next for the memecoin in the New Year.
Trump and Musk Affected Dogecoin
At the beginning of the year, Dogecoin’s price soared to $0.40. This price increase triggered calls for the memecoin to hit $1.
However, till now, that has not happened as DOGE has dropped by 60% year-to-date.
According to CCN’s findings, it appears that Trump played a role in the cryptocurrency’s loss of momentum. One reason for this is the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin ahead of his inauguration.
The launch of the Melania memecoin also appeared to have impacted it, as liquidity shifted from coins like DOGE to these cryptos.
To add fuel to the already-burning fire, Musk and Trump fell out, leading to the former being removed as the leader of D.O.G.E.
Furthermore, despite a series of Dogecoin posts, it appears that Musk’s influence on the cryptocurrency price is no longer as impactful as it was before.
Outside of these developments, on-chain data also revealed why Dogecoin’s price failed to rally.
What Else Affected the Memecoin?
One factor behind DOGE’s underperformance has been a steady decline in derivatives participation. This reflected in the drop in Open Interest (OI).
In January, Dogecoin’s OI surged to approximately $2.2 billion, signaling strong leverage-driven demand.
However, that enthusiasm failed to persist. For most of the year, the OI trended materially lower, with only brief spikes around July and September.
Another red flag is DOGE’s position relative to its realized price. At the time of writing, Dogecoin was trading around $0.13, which is below its realized value of approximately $0.14.
When an asset trades under its realized price, it typically indicates that the average holder is sitting on unrealized losses.
This often weakens market confidence and can increase the likelihood of sell-side pressure during rebounds, as underwater holders use rallies as an opportunity to exit.
In turn, this makes it harder for the price to sustain a clean breakout.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows Dogecoin’s price remains confined within a descending channel,
Momentum indicators continue to favor sellers.
For instance, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) has stayed in negative territory, suggesting bearish pressure remains dominant and limiting the likelihood of a sustained push toward the channel’s upper boundary in the near term.
In this context, an immediate move toward $0.17 appears difficult to justify.
Sentiment data adds to the caution. Holder sentiment has remained negative since Oct. 10, and if that persists, DOGE risks drifting below the $0.10 psychological level.
In a more bearish scenario, the memecoin’s price could slide toward $0.091.
That said, the setup is not irreversible. If demand strengthens into the first days of 2026, supported by rising volume and improved sentiment, DOGE could attempt a recovery.
In that scenario, a move toward the $0.20 region would become plausible.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
