Since early September, DOGE has been tracing a five-wave decline, with the final leg forming an ending diagonal, a pattern traders often view as a sign that a downtrend is running out of steam.
That matters because ending diagonals frequently appear at the end of major sell-offs and can signal that momentum is shifting in the opposite direction.
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Momentum indicators are now starting to support that view.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has printed a bullish divergence, indicating that the price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low, a classic early signal that sellers are losing control.
RSI is also approaching the key 50 level, which, if reclaimed, often marks the beginning of a trend reversal.
The breakout will confirm the end of its five-wave downward movement.
Memecoin rotations, such as this one, often trigger sudden DOGE rallies as traders pile into the largest memecoin by market capitalization.
Long-Term Trend is Bearish
While the short-term chart offers hope for a bounce, the weekly one is decisively bearish.
The chart shows exactly when the trend flipped bearish (red icon).
In November, Dogecoin broke down from a 763-day ascending support trendline, which is significant since it indicates that the two-year increase is over.
Due to this breakdown, traders are now watching for a possible crash to $0.115, the closest horizontal support area, which is approximately 20% below the current price.
The RSI has fallen below 50, indicating a bearish trend.
This signal becomes even stronger when combined with MACD’s movement.
The MACD turned negative, confirming the flip to a bearish trend.
If these readings materialize, Dogecoin will likely spiral downward in the long term, potentially crashing to at least $0.115.
Why is Dogecoin Going Up?
The primary reason Dogecoin bounced during the weekend and is now rising is the upcoming launch of the Grayscale ETF, which is scheduled to go live today.
ETFs often bring institutional liquidity, which can cause the price of an asset to increase.
Due to the bullish short-term readings, the DOGE price could break out of its wedge and reach the $0.200 area.
However, the long-term prediction remains bearish, and Dogecoin will eventually fall to new lows, likely hitting the $0.115 support area.
Traders should closely monitor Dogecoin to see if it breaks out of its wedge, and then keep an eye on the $ 0.20 area for a potential reaction.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
