DOGE slips back to July, crushing hopes of a $1 breakout | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
DOGE’s price collapses to a 10-month low, erasing much of its rally in Q4 2024.
The RSI and MFI show oversold yet weak conditions, with liquidity drying up.
DOGE trades within a descending channel, with indicators suggesting seller control.
After the 2024 Q4 pump, many analysts predicted that Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price could finally reach $1.
This happened primarily due to the introduction of the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Elon Musk.
Ten months later, the opposite happened as Dogecoin’s price plummeted to unexpected levels.
As of this writing, the memecoin had fallen to around $0.16, which is the same as the July swing low.
A closer look at indicators reveals signs to sell DOGE, as a breakout appears unlikely.
Dogecoin $1 Projection Collapses
On the 4-hour chart, DOGE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 31.90, showing that the coin is hovering near oversold territory.
A drop below 20 would confirm a fully oversold condition, which precedes a short-lived relief rally. However, no reversal has been confirmed yet.
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Adding to the bearish outlook, the Money Flow Index (MFI) stands at 26.19, indicating that selling pressure still prevails as inflows continue to wane.
This combination of weak momentum and low liquidity signals that buyers remain cautious, likely expecting a deeper correction toward the $0.15 or $0.14 range.
The daily chart reinforces the bearish tone. DOGE remains far from recovery or any approach toward its elusive $1 goal.
Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays deep in the negative zone, with more red histogram bars appearing.
Additionally, the 26 EMA (orange) has crossed above the 12 EMA (blue), confirming strong selling dominance.
Likewise, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator remains well below the neutral line at -0.039, with consecutive red bars, indicating that bears continue to hold firm control.
Momentum has shifted away from accumulation as traders steer clear of a market weighed down by sustained selling pressure.
A closer analysis of the charts reveals that DOGE’s price is confined within a descending channel. This signifies the persistent bearish trend and the market’s lack of upward conviction.
Each recovery attempt faces quick rejection at resistance, proving that sellers continue to dictate short-term movements.
What Happens Next
From the recent swing high to swing low, DOGE continues to slide toward the Fib level at $0.14.
Currently trading near $0.17, the memecoin has printed a series of long red candles, signaling vigorous selling activity and a decline in buyer confidence.
The repeated rejection at key resistance zones confirms that bulls are struggling to regain control.
If bearish momentum persists, Dogecoin’s price could retest the $0.13 support level in the coming days, a mark that may determine whether the decline deepens or stabilizes.
However, if DOGE manages to defend this zone, it could attempt a rebound toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.21.
In addition, a bounce from this point might invalidate the “sell DOGE” thesis, potentially driving the coin to $0.27.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
