Therefore, the most likely reason is that the rate cuts were already factored into the market, and it is now correcting after the event.
However, this might be just the start of a longer-term bear market.
As crypto analyst Rizio pointed out, rate cuts have historically marked the top of the market cycle.
Every time in the last 25 years that the Fed started cutting rates… the market had already topped. Not “soon after.” Not “a little later.” Already. Done. Finished, he stated.
Traditionally, aggressive rate cuts happen because the system is breaking, not because the economy is healthy.
That raises the possibility that the market is entering the early stages of a macro downturn.
Here’s What Happens Next
The wave count shows a five-wave downward movement (red) since the all-time high in October.
If the count is accurate, the crypto market has just completed wave four of this five-wave downward movement.
As outlined before, the possible breakdown from the channel will confirm that wave five is underway.
Crypto’s sell-off is not random; it’s the result of a technical rejection, a macro surprise, and a historical pattern where rate cuts mark the end, not the beginning, of market cycles.
If TOTALCAP loses the channel support, the next leg down could be steep, confirming that wave five has begun.
For now, traders should watch the channel’s lower boundary closely, it will decide whether this is a temporary dip or the start of a deeper crypto market breakdown.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
