Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Chiliz (CHZ) Breaks 44-Day Resistance After SEC, CFTC Clear Fan Tokens: Will 2026 World Cup Drive It Higher?
Here's what to expect from CHZ ahead of the World Cup | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
CHZ price has continued to surge after the recent SEC and CFTC decision.
The MVRV ratio shows that the altcoin is undervalued despite the rally.
Analysis shows that Chiliz could breeze past the $0.618 golden ratio.
Chiliz (CHZ) has surged 36 this month % to trade at $0.044. The move happened as the Chiliz coin broke out to reach its highest level since Feb. 14.
For some, an 80-day countdown to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is generating front-running demand of increasing intensity. But that is not all.
In this analysis, CCN explains why CHZ’s price has outperformed most other cryptos. We also evaluate what could be next for the altcoin’s market value.
During that period, the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance officially classifying Fan Tokens as digital collectibles and digital tools rather than securities.
For years, the ambiguity surrounding Fan Token classification under US securities law had effectively excluded Chiliz from the world’s largest and most liquid crypto market.
Major US exchanges could not list Fan Tokens without exposing themselves to regulatory risk.
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Following the development, CHZ’s price broke out. On the 4-hour chart, CCN observed that a descending wedge formed between March 17 and March 28.
This compressed the Chiliz coin price steadily from $0.040 toward the $0.035 support zone.
Sometimes descending wedges are inherently bullish patterns that signal exhausted selling pressure. The breakout came on the highest volume seen in weeks, confirming real buying behind the move.
At the time of writing, CHZ’s price has now cleared the $0.040, breaching the 44-day resistance.
Amid that, the MACD is surging, indicating bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, Holders Sentiment has exploded to 25.79, reflecting that enthusiasm is arriving alongside the breakout.
Should this trend remain the same, bulls should watch for a hold above $0.0398 before chasing further upside. If sustained, the next target could reach $0.050.
Project Looks to Expand, Buying Pressure Jumps
Since this development removes the legal exposure that has kept institutional participants from establishing CHZ positions, the project has disclosed its plan to expand its base.
According to Chiliz, it will officially launch in the U.S. and Asia soon as well.
Amid that, Smart Money has increased its exposure to Chiliz.
According to Glassnode data, addresses holding at least 10,000 CHZ exhibit a striking accumulation pattern, providing powerful on-chain confirmation of today’s price surge.
From Feb. 27 through mid-March, whale addresses oscillated between 6,913 and 6,933 without a clear direction.
During that period, CHZ’s price similarly drifted sideways near $0.035. Then, around March 17, the picture shifted decisively.
Despite the price actually dipping toward its lowest levels of the period, near $0.033, whale addresses began climbing consistently.
CHZ Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k | Credit: Glassnode
As of this writing, the metric has reached the highest reading in months. Crucially, this eight-day streak of rising whale counts directly preceded and then accompanied today’s breakout candle.
So, if this trend continues, CHZ’s price rally might extend well beyond the current levels.
CHZ Undervalued Ahead of World Cup
Interestingly, the regulatory catalyst arrives at a moment when the second driver of CHZ’s rally is operating on an autonomous, time-compressing schedule.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, is approximately 80 days away.
Historically, the Chiliz coin and Fan Tokens have experienced their greatest price appreciation in the weeks leading up to major international sporting events.
The mechanism is well-documented. Sports fans who discover Fan Tokens through their club’s marketing channels become buyers. Media coverage of the World Cup generates cryptocurrency-adjacent coverage of Fan Tokens.
From an on-chain perspective, the current CHZ price might still be a good accumulation area before the World Cup begins.
Looking at the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Santiment data shows that it is at 15.77%.
Historically, whenever the ratio spiked above 25–34%, CHZ’s price peaked shortly thereafter and then reversed.
Those elevated readings signalled that short-term holders were sitting on excessive unrealized profits, suggesting a likely distribution.
Conversely, the deepest negative readings consistently marked buying opportunities.
The September 2025 plunge to -24% preceded a powerful November–January rally. More recently, the February–March 2026 dip to -16% set up the current breakout perfectly.
Now, at +15.77%, the MVRV has flipped positive and is accelerating. Crucially, it remains well below the danger zone of 25%+ where prior rallies peaked.
That gap is significant. It means the average CHZ holder from the past 30 days is in modest profit. So, it is not enough to trigger aggressive profit-taking yet.
The setup also mirrors the early stages of the January rally, when MVRV climbed from negative into the teens before ultimately reaching peak territory.
If that pattern repeats, the Chiliz coin price has meaningful upside before the MVRV signals caution.
That combination of price and volume is exactly what confirms a genuine structural shift.
The descending wedge that formed from the January high near $0.060 through late March has now broken to the upside.
The chart clearly annotates the target, pointing directly to the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.055. That’s the immediate bull case, representing roughly 26% upside from current levels.
The path there runs through two checkpoints. First, the 0.5 level at $0.042 isalready being tested as the candle closes.
So, a daily close above it flips this level from resistance to support. Beyond that, the 0.618 level at $0.047 is the next meaningful hurdle before the $0.0549 target comes into view.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
