Celestia (TIA) Struggles Below $4.30 Despite Avoiding a New All-Time Low

Key Takeaways

• Celestia’s (TIA) price nearly fell to an all-time low on Feb. 3.
• TIA broke out from a short-term resistance trend line.
• Can TIA continue its ascent and close above $4.30?
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The TIA price recovered admirably after the Feb. 3 crypto market liquidation. TIA created several higher lows and broke out from a short-term resistance trend line.

Despite its newfound strength, TIA has fallen over 80% since its all-time high. The price must break out from its long-term resistances to begin a bullish trend reversal.

Let’s analyze the price action and see how likely this is.

TIA Bounces Before Lows

The weekly time frame shows that the TIA price has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since its all-time high of $18.53 in January 2024. So far, TIA has declined by over 81%.

The decline culminated with a low of $2.35 on Feb. 3, which was slightly above the all-time low of $2.03. The TIA price bounced afterward but failed to reclaim the $4.30 horizontal area, the final horizontal support area before the all-time low.

After the breakdown, the area will likely provide resistance, especially since it is close to the descending resistance trend line. So, the trend cannot be considered bullish until TIA reclaims it.

Technical indicators lean bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50 and decreasing, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative and falling.

So, the most likely outlook is a rejection from the confluence of resistances followed by new lows.

If that happens, the next closest support will be $0.42, created by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bounce.

TIA Price Bounces

While the weekly time frame leans bearish, the daily one shows that TIA has broken out from a short-term descending resistance trend line on Feb. 20 and validated it as support five days later (green icon).

The RSI and MACD support this breakout since both are increasing. The RSI has crossed 50. A MACD movement into positive territory would be another bullish signal.

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If the increase continues, the next resistance will be $5.25, created by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level and a horizontal resistance area.

The level coincides with the long-term descending resistance trend line, so a breakout above it will signal the trend has turned bullish.

However, the wave count is bearish. The count suggests the price has completed an upward A-B-C correction, followed by a five-wave decline (red). This suggests the trend is bearish, and the ongoing increase is another A-B-C structure (green).

Therefore, while the TIA increase may continue until the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance at $6.10-$6.90, the long-term trend is likely bearish, and new lows will eventually follow.

Alternatively, a decisive weekly close above the long-term descending resistance trend line will mean a trend reversal is underway, especially if it is followed by a close above the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci resistance. This currently seems less likely.

TIA’s Relief Rally

The TIA price shows several bullish signs in the short term that can lead to a temporary upward movement.

However, the long-term trend remains bearish until TIA can break out from its long-term descending resistance trend line.