Cardano (ADA) Price Jumps 15% After Grayscale ETF Filing — Next Test at $0.85
Key Takeaways
- Cardano (ADA) is attempting to reclaim the $0.75 support area.
- Grayscale has applied for an ADA Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
- Can ADA break out from the channel and move above $1?
Cardano has struggled to find its footing in the current cycle. Despite finally beginning a rally in November, ADA’s momentum waned next month, and bears regained control in 2025. On February 3, ADA fell to a low of $0.50 — a 60% decline since the cycle high.
However, the tide may be shifting. ADA has regained its footing since, creating a lower high. The rally accelerated on Feb. 11 after positive news regarding an ADA ETF filing by Grayscale.
Can this be the beginning of a longer-term rally, or will it fail and lead to a lower high? Let’s find out.
ADA Price Retests Support
The weekly time frame ADA chart shows that the price has fallen since its cycle high of $1.32 in December 2024, validating the $1.25 horizontal area as resistance. The decrease has transpired in two distinct drops separated by a relief rally.
While the ADA price fell to a low of $0.51 in February, it has bounced since. This week’s close is critical since it can confirm whether ADA will reclaim the $0.75 horizontal area.
This area is critical since it provided resistance before the breakout that led to the cycle high. Reclaiming it will mean that the previous breakdown was just a deviation, and ADA has retested the area as support.
The price movement will also affect technical indicator readings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are at critical levels.
The RSI has reached 50 from above, and a breakdown below it will indicate a bearish trend. The MACD has just made a bearish cross.
Therefore, the weekly ADA close is vital for determining the direction of future trends. Leaving the price action aside, there were numerous positive Cardano news this week, starting with Grayscale filing for an ADA Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) with the New York Stock Exchange.
It is worth mentioning that while the news has been widely reported by many crypto and non-crypto observers, including Mario Nawfal , the official Grayscale team has not confirmed nor denied this. The Cardano Foundation also announced the limited edition Cardano Ledger Nano X while highlighting several innovative projects within the Cardano ecosystem.
Can ADA Break Out?
The daily time frame chart shows that the ADA price has fallen inside a descending parallel channel since its cycle high. This signifies that the decline is corrective, and ADA will eventually break out from its channel.
The wave count supports this possibility, showing a completed A-B-C structure (white) where waves A and C had the same length.
The correction ended on Feb. 8 (white icon) with a truncation since the Feb. 3 bottom was lower than the termination point.
Technical indicators do not yet confirm this possibility. Similarly to the weekly chart, ADA has to reclaim the $0.85 resistance area to confirm the bullish trend reversal.
This could take the price toward the channel’s resistance trend line at $1 and likely cause a breakout.
If that happens, the next closest resistance will be at $1.75, created by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement resistance of the most recent decline.
Breakout Incoming
The ADA price surged on Feb. 11 after news of a Grayscale ETF filing.
However, ADA must still reclaim the $0.85 resistance area to confirm its bullish trend reversal. If it does, a breakout from its parallel channel will become more likely, possibly triggering an increase to $1.75.
