Cardano’s (ADA) Long-Term Bullish Outlook Hinges on Breaking This Key Resistance

Key Takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) trades inside a critical resistance at $0.70.
• The ADA price trades inside a descending parallel channel.
• Is Cardano’s long-term trend bullish or bearish?

The Cardano performance this cycle has been underwhelming. ADA started a delayed upward movement near the end of 2024, which was short-lived.

2025 has been decisively bearish, with the price falling over 16% and invalidating its previous breakout.

An ongoing bounce that started in April has renewed optimism, but ADA needs to clear a critical resistance area to confirm a bullish trend.

Cardano Reaches Resistance

The weekly time frame Cardano analysis shows the price has fallen since its cycle high of $1.33 in December 2024.

The price created a lower high and massive bearish engulfing candlestick in March (red icon), accelerating its decline.

Cardano’s decrease and close below the $0.70 horizontal resistance area are highly negative signs of a long-term bearish trend.

ADA’s breakout above this level in November 2024 was expected to confirm the bullish long-term trend, but its close below it invalidated it.

Technical indicators are also at critical levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is 0.

So, whether the price breaks out above $0.70 will also have significant implications for the indicator readings, which will, in turn, determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish.

ADA’s Future Trend

ADA’s long-term count is bearish. The count shows that Cardano completed a five-wave decline (red) after its all-time high in 2021.

If the count is accurate, ADA’s entire increase in this cycle is an A-B-C corrective structure (green).

The rally ended at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, aligning with the bearish count.

If this happens, the ADA price will eventually fall to new lows.

Nevertheless, the daily time frame chart shows that ADA trades inside a descending parallel channel.

These channels usually contain corrective movements, meaning an eventual breakout from them is the most likely outcome.

ADA’s bounce on April 7 (green icon) and channel formation are signs of a bullish trend

However, ADA must reclaim the channel’s midline at near $0.75 to confirm the reversal.

The projected movement would also cause a close above the long-term resistance at $0.70$.

ADA Trend Unclear

The future ADA trend is unclear due to mixed readings from the daily and weekly time frames.

While the wave count leans bearish, the short-term price action shows bullish signs.

Whether the price of Cardano closes above the $0.70-$0.75 area or breaks down will be key in determining the future trend.