TAO has successfully broken above a daily descending channel | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
TAO has claimed the top gainer spot among the top 100 cryptos, surging nearly 10% over the past 24 hours.
Total Open Interest (OI) has climbed to $103.73 million, its highest level since mid-February.
Analysis has confirmed a “MacdLE +2” long entry signal, a pattern that preceded every major TAO rally.
TAO, native to the Bittensor project, has risen to the top gainer spot out of the top 100 cryptos today.
Over the last 24 hours, the TAO crypto price climbed nearly 10%, erasing some of the losses it incurred a few weeks ago.
At the time of writing, TAO has surpassed $190. However, it does not seem like the AI-themed crypto rally is over.
With $230 now in the crosshairs, the question is no longer whether the Bittensor coin will take to hit this spot. It is how quickly the current setup can get it there.
TAO Crypto Price Nears Key Breakout
On the 4-hour chart, TAO’s price is pressing a critical breakout level. As shown below, the altcoin trades at $195.30 and is looking to breach the $200 resistance that has capped its price since mid-February.
The channel breakout from February has held. The Supertrend at $173.60 remains bullish and well below the current price, confirming the bullish trend.
However, the TAO crypto price has consolidated in a tight range between $163 and $200 for three weeks. Interestingly, this seems like a healthy support base after the initial recovery surge.
The chart arrow points to a move above $200, with $220 to $230 as the next logical zone.
However, there is one concern. At the time of writing, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is -0.03, marginally negative and in a declining trend.
So, bulls need CMF to flip positive to confirm genuine buying pressure behind the $200 breakout.
Open Interest Follows
Amid this, Open Interest (OI) is surging into the $200 resistance test — and that adds both fuel and risk to the setup.
At the time of writing, TAO’s total OI has climbed to $103.73 million today, the highest level since mid-February.
The timing is significant: OI is spiking precisely as price pushes toward $200. Notably, this is the same ceiling that capped TAO’s price on Feb. 17, when OI was also elevated before a sharp pullback.
That February pattern is the key precedent. OI rose into the resistance test, price rejected, and OI subsequently collapsed alongside price as leveraged longs were liquidated.
Thus, in this case, the rising OI into resistance is a double-edged signal. If TAO’s price breaks convincingly above $200, the elevated OI becomes rocket fuel.
As such, it could drive the altcoin above $220. But if $200 rejects again, the $103 million in open positions becomes a liquidation risk.
In that scenario, the TAO crypto price could experience a swift flush back toward $175 (Supertrend support).
TAO Price Analysis: Higher
On the daily chart, TAO’s price is up 8.51% today at $196.98, after breaking above the descending channel.
At the time of writing, the daily chart adds important signal context via the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Strategy overlay.
The pattern is consistent. Every MacdLE +2 signal (long entry) on this chart preceded a meaningful rally — July, August, September, October, December, and most recently the February low near $143.
The latest MacdLE +2 fired at that exact floor, and the price has since recovered over 37%.
Therefore, every MacdSE -2 signal (short entry) preceded a decline. The strategy has been remarkably accurate across this entire dataset.
No MacdSE has fired yet. That means the current long signal remains active, and today’s channel breakout is the first confirmation candle.
In addition, the Money Flow Index (MFI) at 55.49 is neutral and rising from oversold levels near 22 in late February. As it stands, it has room to push toward 80 before entering overbought territory.
Therefore, the TAO crypto price first target could be above the channel: $236.37 (0.236 Fib). Beyond that, it could hit $294.18 (0.382 Fib).
What Could Prevent TAO From Reaching $230?
The primary risk is macro in nature. A broad crypto market selloff driven by Bitcoin weakness and geopolitical shock would likely pull TAO back regardless of its individual technical strength.
Profit-taking from traders who accumulated during the recent base-building phase also represents a near-term risk.
This could be the case, particularly as TAO approaches the $230 resistance level, where historical sellers have previously stopped rallies.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
