Bitcoin Dominance Drops at Last, Opening the Door to Altcoin Season

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) fell over the past two days.
• Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) during this time.
• Will this performance continue, leading to an Altcoin Season?

The crypto market has rallied since April, leading to a new Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high in May. However, altcoins have lagged considerably, most failing to approach their previous highs.

Nevertheless, the BTCD and altcoin movement this week is promising, opening the door to the start of a period of altcoin dominance. Let’s analyze some charts and see if an altcoin season will occur in 2025.

Bitcoin Dominance Falls

The Bitcoin Dominance chart fell significantly between May 7 and 14, declining from its cycle high of 65.38% to 61.89%.

While the speed of the decline suggested the long-term trend was bearish, BTCD increased afterward and reached a new cycle high of 65.95% on June 22.

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Despite the high, BTCD fell again and risks closing below 65.30%, the resistance from the previous high.

If it does, it will confirm a deviation and a failed breakout, an even more bearish sign confirming the bearish trend.

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences.

The deviation will be confirmed if BTCD breaks down from its ascending support trend line. If that happens, new lows below 61% will likely mark the start of the altcoin season.

Why is Crypto Up Today?

The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) shows decisive bullish signs, pointing to an imminent rally.

The wave count shows a completed five-wave upward movement (green) and the ensuing W-X-Y correction (red).

ALTCAP’s correction ended at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and waves W and Y were the same length.

If accurate, ALTCAP has completed its correction and started a new upward movement.

The first target for this increase will be $1.55 trillion, giving the current upward movement the same length as the previous one.

Technical indicators do not confirm this outline since the RSI and MACD are below 50 and 0, respectively.

However, they are close to breaking their corrective trend lines, confirming the upward trend.

Can Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin?

The final indicator analyzed on whether the altcoin season has started is the altcoin dominance chart.

The chart shows a five-wave decline (red) since December 2024, which might end soon.

Besides a completed wave count, the altcoin dominance trades inside a descending wedge, considered a bullish pattern.

A breakout from the wedge will confirm the beginning of the altcoin season, extending the altcoin dominance to at least 8.80%.

Altcoin Season Could Begin

Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin in 2025, casting doubt on the start of an altcoin season.

However, the charts show promise this week since a BTCD decline is combined with an ALTCAP breakout.

If the altcoin dominance also breaks out, it could start a period of significant altcoin outperformance.