The sharpness of the decline suggested that the trend had turned bearish, and the drop was the beginning of an impulsive long-term decrease.
The upward movement since then has not invalidated this prediction but has cast doubt on it.
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While the rally is contained inside an ascending wedge, which is considered a bearish pattern, the Bitcoin Dominance has reached the 0.854 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, which is uncommon in corrections.
Additionally, the wave count does not offer a textbook bearish structure for the increase.
On the contrary, the most likely count is a five-wave leading diagonal (green), which suggests the trend is still bullish.
Finally, technical indicators have not generated any bearish divergences. While the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows waning momentum, it cannot predict a bearish trend reversal.
So, it is still unclear whether the BTCD will fall. An increase above 65.38% will invalidate the possibility of more downside. On the other hand, a wedge breakdown could offer some altcoin relief.
Altcoins Continue Correcting
The Altcoin market cap chart does offer some hope for an altcoin season in 2025.
However, the wave count suggests another short-term low is likely.
Moreover, technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD fall below their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively.
So, while the altcoin market cap has likely started a bullish trend, another short-term decline is likely before the bottom.
Will Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin?
The final indicator analyzed for the possibility of an altcoin season is the altcoin dominance chart, which suggests a period of altcoin outperformance awaits.
This is because the altcoin dominance has fallen in a five-wave decline since December 2024. The wave count suggests wave five is ending, creating an ending diagonal.
However, the readings are very similar to those from the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which suggests a level ripe for a reversal, but no indicator confirmation yet.
A breakout from the wedge, combined with RSI and MACD movement above 50 and 0, will confirm that altcoin season has begun.
Altcoin Season Delayed Again
The topic of an altcoin season has been prominent this market cycle because of the lack of one.
While the BTCD showed its most decisive signs of weakness yet in May, it has recovered admirably.
While the possibility of an altcoin season is more optimistic than the earlier parts of the cycle, indicators make it unclear if one will happen.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
