Altcoin Season Delayed Again — Watch These Key Indicators for Confirmation

• The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) trades at key resistance.
• Altcoins have underperformed significantly since December 2024.
• Will an altcoin season transpire in 2025, or will the underperformance continue?

The crypto market has rallied since April, leading to a new Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high on May 22.

However, most altcoins trade below their all-time highs.

While the BTC Dominance rate fell at the start of May, it has recovered admirably and is nearing its cycle highs.

The recovery in BTC leads to an important question: Is altcoin season over before it began? Let’s find out.

BTC Dominance Hits Resistance

The Bitcoin Dominance chart suffered a sharp drawdown between May 7 and 14, falling from a cycle high of 65.38% to 61,89%.

The sharpness of the decline suggested that the trend had turned bearish, and the drop was the beginning of an impulsive long-term decrease.

The upward movement since then has not invalidated this prediction but has cast doubt on it.

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While the rally is contained inside an ascending wedge, which is considered a bearish pattern, the Bitcoin Dominance has reached the 0.854 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, which is uncommon in corrections.

Additionally, the wave count does not offer a textbook bearish structure for the increase.

On the contrary, the most likely count is a five-wave leading diagonal (green), which suggests the trend is still bullish.

Finally, technical indicators have not generated any bearish divergences. While the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows waning momentum, it cannot predict a bearish trend reversal.

So, it is still unclear whether the BTCD will fall. An increase above 65.38% will invalidate the possibility of more downside. On the other hand, a wedge breakdown could offer some altcoin relief.

Altcoins Continue Correcting

The Altcoin market cap chart does offer some hope for an altcoin season in 2025.

This is because altcoins completed a five-wave upward movement starting on April 7. Wave five coincided with the aforementioned BTCD decline.

In addition, the decrease since May 12 is contained inside a descending parallel channel, a sign of a corrective decrease.

However, the wave count suggests another short-term low is likely.

Moreover, technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD fall below their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively.

So, while the altcoin market cap has likely started a bullish trend, another short-term decline is likely before the bottom.

Will Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin?

The final indicator analyzed for the possibility of an altcoin season is the altcoin dominance chart, which suggests a period of altcoin outperformance awaits.

This is because the altcoin dominance has fallen in a five-wave decline since December 2024. The wave count suggests wave five is ending, creating an ending diagonal.

However, the readings are very similar to those from the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which suggests a level ripe for a reversal, but no indicator confirmation yet.

A breakout from the wedge, combined with RSI and MACD movement above 50 and 0, will confirm that altcoin season has begun.

Altcoin Season Delayed Again

The topic of an altcoin season has been prominent this market cycle because of the lack of one.

While the BTCD showed its most decisive signs of weakness yet in May, it has recovered admirably.

While the possibility of an altcoin season is more optimistic than the earlier parts of the cycle, indicators make it unclear if one will happen.