Bitcoin Rally Faces Resistance, but November All-Time High Remains on the Table

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) created a shooting star candlestick last week.
• Bitcoin reached the second-highest-ever monthly close in October.
• Will Bitcoin finally reach a new all-time high in November?

The Bitcoin price increased over 10% in October and was on the brink of reaching a new all-time high. However, the rally faltered in October’s finals week, creating a bearish candlestick and declining below $69,000.

Can the Bitcoin price recover from this setback and reach a new all-time high price in November, or did the decline mark the cycle top? Let’s find out.

Bitcoin’s Failed Breakout

The Bitcoin price broke out from a long-term descending parallel channel on Oct. 16. The channel had existed since the all-time high of $73,794 in March, so the movement outside of it was expected to lead to a significant price rally.

However, BTC failed to close above the final horizontal resistance area at $70,000. Rather, it created a long upper wick and a shooting star candlestick in the weekly time frame (back icon). These candlesticks are often indicative of a market top.

The previous candlestick (white icon) led to a two-week decline before the Bitcoin price started a bullish trend reversal.

It is worth mentioning that the previous candlestick had a bearish close while the current is a bullish one.

Technical indicators are decisively bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bullish cross. The previous time this happened was in October 2023 (white line) and led to the all-time high price.

While the weekly price action is not entirely bullish yet, the monthly one is. Despite last week’s decline, the monthly candlestick for October is bullish and led to the second-highest-ever monthly close, trailing only that of March 2024.

Finally, the price action shows that BTC has closed above the $60,000 horizontal support area, creating long lower wicks each time it fell below it (white icon).

So, the combined readings from the weekly and monthly time frames suggest that the BTC price has not reached its cycle top but will continue to increase and reach a new all-time high. Several on-chain Bitcoin indicators  also support this conclusion.

Let’s look at the wave count and determine a potential target for the next Bitcoin high.

Bitcoin’s All-Time High

The long-term wave count aligns with the positive readings from the weekly and monthly time frames. The count suggests that BTC has started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave. The top of the wave will mark the end of the current market cycle.

According to the count, the Bitcoin price will reach a high between $85,100 and $88,800. The lower limit of the range is created by making wave five 0.618 times the length of waves one and three combined (white).

The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates the upper limit (black).

An ascending parallel channel determines when this target will be reached. Since wave five often ends at the channel’s midline, BTC could reach a high in March.

Interestingly. the channel’s midline triggered the Bitcoin price rejection last week. An extension of wave five leads to a target between $107,150 and $113,300, which can be reached in July (white).

Bullish November

The Bitcoin price failed to reach a new all-time high in October but will likely do so in November. The monthly price action and the long-term wave count are positive.

Once BTC breaks its highs, the first target will likely be between $85,100 and $88,800, and it will likely hit in March.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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