Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s price has been correcting since its all-time high of $73,77 on March 14. The downward movement culminated with a low of $49,000 on Aug. 5. The price has moved upward since, increasing by nearly 40%.
Despite the increase, BTC has yet to confirm its bullish trend reversal with a close above its corrective pattern. Let’s analyze the price action and see if it can finally do so.
The weekly time frame Bitcoin price chart shows that BTC has fallen inside a descending parallel channel since the all-time high of $73,794 in March.
The movement inside it has been extremely choppy, with both the resistance and support trend lines validated several times.
This week, the BTC price reached a high of $68,388, moving outside of the channel’s confines after 217 days. However, Bitcoin still needs to reach a weekly close above the resistance trend line to confirm the breakout.
Technical indicators in the weekly time frame are turning bullish. The RSI moved back above 50 and broke its resistance trend line, signaling that the correction was over.
More importantly, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is close to making a bullish cross. The previous time this happened was in October 2023 and led to a 173% upward movement.
Interestingly, the BTC price broke out from a similar parallel channel at the time. So, the similarities are not isolated to the price action alone.
Cryptocurrency analysts and investors on X have a mostly positive view of the future Bitcoin trend. Cryptoboss suggests that the Bitcoin breakout will lead to a price above $100,000.
Aaron Crypto believes that the Bitcoin movement is part of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. Once BTC clears the highs, it can accelerate the rally toward the all-time high.
SatoshiFlipper tweeted a short-term channel , suggesting that a breakout from it can also lead to a breakout from the longer-term one.
However, not everyone is convinced with the ongoing rally. Rekt Capital is more conservative , stating that a close above the channel’s resistance trend line must confirm the bullish trend reversal.
The long-term wave count is bullish, suggesting that BTC will reach a new all-time high soon. According to the count, BTC has just completed wave four in a five-wave upward movement (white).
If BTC breaks out from the channel, it will confirm that wave five has started. The first target for it is between $85,100 and $88,600.
The lower limit of the range is created by giving wave five 0.618 times the length of waves one and three combined. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) created the upper limit.
An extensive analysis of Bitcoin’s performance during the holidays reveals that the price does not perform well before the holidays but picks up afterward. This would align with the biggest portion of the bull run occurring in the first quarter 2025.
If this happens, wave five would likely extend and reach the higher target of $107,200. The target is created by giving wave five the same length as waves one and three combined.
The Bitcoin price has nearly broken out from a long-term descending parallel channel. A breakout from it will confirm that the fifth and final wave toward a new all-time high has started.
The first target for the high is between $85,100 and $88,600, while the second is $107,200.